CryptoQuant Founder Ki Young Ju Expects Bitcoin Bull Cycle to Deliver 3–5x Advance

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju said he expects the current Bitcoin bull market to produce a 3x to 5x advance rather than the parabolic 10x or greater rallies seen in some earlier cycles, with a significantly milder bear market potentially following the expansion.

According to Wu Blockchain, Ju argued that structural changes in Bitcoin’s market have reduced the conditions that previously produced extreme upside and downside moves. He pointed to growing institutional ownership and Bitcoin’s larger market capitalization as factors that are dampening volatility on both sides of the market.

Bitcoin Market Structure Has Changed

Ju contrasted the current cycle with earlier periods dominated by retail investors and relatively low liquidity. In those markets, he said, hot money could fuel rapid vertical rallies before triggering drawdowns of about 80%.

The larger market capitalization of Bitcoin and increased participation from institutional investors represent a different market structure, according to Ju. In his view, these changes make a repeat of the most extreme historical price cycles less likely.

His 3x to 5x expectation therefore represents a more moderate cycle compared with the 10x-plus advances associated with some previous Bitcoin bull markets. Ju also expects the subsequent bear market to be markedly milder than earlier downturns.

On-Chain Indicators Point to a Different Cycle

Ju also highlighted several on-chain and market indicators that he believes provide context for Bitcoin’s current cycle.

One of the indicators he cited is Bitcoin’s markets-value-to-realized-value (MVRV) ratio. Ju noted that MVRV has never fallen below 1 during the current cycle.

The ratio compares Bitcoin’s market value with its realized value and is commonly used in on-chain analysis to assess how market valuations compare with the aggregate value at which coins last moved.

Ju also pointed to Bitcoin’s rising realized capitalization, saying it is climbing alongside fresh capital entering the market. Unlike market capitalization, which reflects the current market price across the circulating supply, realized capitalization values coins based on the price at which they were last moved on-chain.

Whale Activity and CryptoQuant Indicators

Another factor cited by Ju was the behavior of early Bitcoin holders, commonly referred to as “OG” whales. He said these holders have halted distributions during the current cycle.

Ju additionally highlighted futures-market positioning, saying that futures whales accumulated aggressive long exposure near cycle lows. Such positioning reflects activity in Bitcoin derivatives rather than direct spot holdings.

The CryptoQuant founder also pointed to the 365-day moving average of CryptoQuant’s PnL Index, which he described as showing a meaningful inflection point.

Taken together, the indicators form the basis of Ju’s assessment that Bitcoin’s current market cycle differs structurally from earlier periods characterized by lower liquidity, retail-driven speculation and substantially larger price swings.

A More Moderate Cycle

Ju’s assessment does not call for the disappearance of Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior. Instead, his argument is that the scale of both the advance and the subsequent decline may be reduced as the asset’s market structure matures.

Under his scenario, the current bull market would deliver a 3x to 5x advance rather than a 10x-plus parabolic move, followed by a bear market that is significantly less severe than the roughly 80% drawdowns seen in earlier cycles.

His analysis remains an expectation rather than a guaranteed market outcome, with the on-chain indicators he cited providing the primary basis for his view of the current Bitcoin cycle.

Writer: Victoria Hale
Technology & Blockchain Writer

Victoria Hale writes about blockchain technology, digital infrastructure, and the intersection of emerging technologies with finance. Her articles explore how new protocols and systems are shaping the evolving digital economy.

She prioritises clarity and accuracy when explaining technical developments to a general audience.