Bitcoin Bull Index Plunges to 30 After Fed Rate Hike, CryptoQuant Says
The move marks a significant deterioration in the indicator’s reading. CryptoQuant’s Bull Score is designed to track a range of on-chain and market signals to assess Bitcoin’s prevailing market regime. A reading of 80 had previously placed the indicator firmly in bullish territory. The latest reading of 30 moves it into bearish territory.
Fed Rate Hike Changes Bitcoin Market Signals
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at its Sept. 16 meeting, taking the target range to 3.75% to 4%. It was the central bank’s first rate increase since 2023.
Bitcoin showed relatively limited immediate price reaction to the decision, trading around $76,000 after the announcement, according to Cointelegraph. The shift in CryptoQuant’s Bull Index nevertheless reflects a deterioration in the underlying market indicators tracked by the analytics firm.
CryptoQuant's broader market framework incorporates multiple indicators covering Bitcoin’s profitability, valuation, demand and network activity. Its Bull/Bear Indicator, for example, uses profitability measures including MVRV, NUPL and SOPR to classify broader market conditions.
CryptoQuant Had Flagged Bullish Conditions
The latest change comes only weeks after CryptoQuant reported a substantially stronger reading. On Aug. 25, the firm said Bitcoin’s Bull Score had climbed to 80 from 30 over the previous week, its highest level since October 2025. At that time, eight of the index’s 10 underlying indicators were flashing bullish signals.
That earlier improvement followed a 24% Bitcoin rally that pushed several on-chain and demand indicators into bullish territory, according to CryptoQuant. The firm also identified a weekly close above Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average, then around $83,000, as necessary to confirm a shift into a new bull market.
More recently, CryptoQuant analysis pointed to continued strength in some parts of the Bitcoin market. Cointelegraph reported on Sept. 15 that Bitcoin short-term holders had remained in partial profit for nearly a month, with short-term holder profitability standing at $168.2 billion in profit against $102.6 billion in losses.
Rate Policy Remains a Key Market Variable
The sharp change in the Bull Index illustrates how quickly market-cycle indicators can respond when macroeconomic conditions change. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision has introduced a different policy backdrop after the central bank had previously maintained rates without an increase.
The latest CryptoQuant reading does not by itself establish that Bitcoin has entered a prolonged downturn. Rather, it records a shift in the collection of market indicators used by the firm to classify Bitcoin’s current conditions.
For now, the Bull Index has moved from 80 to 30, leaving subsequent readings of CryptoQuant’s on-chain and market indicators as a key measure of whether the bearish signal persists.
writer: Ethan Collins
Crypto Journalist
Ethan Collins reports on developments across the cryptocurrency and blockchain sector. His work covers market movements, protocol updates, regulatory changes, and emerging trends in digital assets.
He focuses on presenting complex topics in a clear and accessible manner for a broad readership.
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