XRP Price Eyes $3.20 Recovery Scenario as Token Tests 200-Day Moving Average
XRP is trading near $1.31, below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at approximately $1.37, as traders assess whether a historical recovery pattern from 2023 could offer a comparison for the token's next move. A repeat of that earlier rally, measured proportionally, would place XRP near $3.20, although the scenario depends on the price first reclaiming the long-term trend indicator.
XRP currently sits about 4% below its 200-day SMA, making the immediate technical hurdle a return above the moving average. The indicator would need to be reclaimed and subsequently hold as support before the historical comparison could strengthen.
How XRP's 2023 Recovery Developed
In March 2023, XRP moved above its 200-day SMA, which was near $0.40. The token returned toward that broader moving-average area in May and briefly fell below it before recovering.
Historical data puts XRP's May low near $0.4217, while analysis at the time identified $0.40 as the main support zone. The defense of that area preceded a substantial advance in the following months.
By July 13, 2023, XRP had reached approximately $0.938, marking a gain of roughly 134.5% from the $0.40 support level. However, the rally's strongest phase followed a court ruling in the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's case against Ripple. The moving average provided a technical reference point, but the legal development was an additional catalyst for the price move.
Why a Similar XRP Rally Points Toward $3.20
XRP's current 200-day SMA is approximately $1.3665. Applying the same 134.5% increase recorded from the 2023 support area to this level produces a hypothetical price of around $3.20.
This calculation is a historical comparison, not a confirmed price forecast. From XRP's current price near $1.31, reaching $3.20 would require an increase of approximately 145%.
Even if XRP reached that level, it would remain below its 2025 peak near $3.66. The scenario would therefore represent a substantial recovery without necessarily setting a new price record.
XRP Needs to Reclaim $1.37 Before the Scenario Strengthens
The key near-term level is the 200-day SMA around $1.37. A move above the average followed by a successful retest would indicate that buyers are defending the longer-term trend measure, potentially establishing a base for a broader recovery.
If XRP continues trading below the moving average, the technical picture would remain weaker. The SMA could instead act as resistance above the current price, leaving the token exposed to further downside before any sustained rebound develops.
For now, the $3.20 level remains conditional on XRP first recovering its 200-day moving average. Repeating the scale of the 2023 advance is one possible historical scenario, but the earlier rally also benefited from a separate legal catalyst that may not be repeated.
source: thecryptobasic
Writer: Ethan Collins
Crypto Journalist
Ethan Collins reports on developments across the cryptocurrency and blockchain sector. His work covers market movements, protocol updates, regulatory changes, and emerging trends in digital assets.
He focuses on presenting complex topics in a clear and accessible manner for a broad readership.
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