Bitcoin Price Bets Drive Record $2.7 Billion in Weekly Crypto Prediction Market Volume
Weekly trading volume in cryptocurrency-related prediction market contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket reached a record $2.7 billion last week, with short-term bets on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices driving most of the activity, according to a report by Bloomberg cited by Wu Blockchain.
The record figure represents notional volume across crypto-related contracts on the two platforms. Bloomberg cited data compiled by a Dune Analytics user for the reported total. The figures indicate that cryptocurrency has become a major category in prediction markets, ranking second only to sports on both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Crypto Becomes a Major Prediction Market Category
Bitcoin price movements and other short-term cryptocurrency market fluctuations were the primary drivers of activity, according to the report. Rather than focusing exclusively on buying and selling digital assets directly, participants can use prediction market contracts to take positions on specified outcomes, including whether cryptocurrency prices will move above or below particular levels.
The record $2.7 billion in weekly notional volume places crypto-related contracts behind sports as a category on both platforms. The ranking highlights the importance of cryptocurrency-related events and price outcomes within the prediction market businesses operated by Kalshi and Polymarket.
However, the reported figure measures notional contract volume. It should not be interpreted as the amount of money deposited by users, the platforms' revenue, or the value of cryptocurrencies traded on spot exchanges.
Crypto Exchanges Expand Into Prediction Markets
The growth in prediction market activity comes as cryptocurrency exchanges are expanding into the sector while spot trading volumes decline. The shift creates an additional market category for exchanges beyond conventional trading in digital assets.
Coinbase is among the companies entering the space with a prediction market offering powered by Kalshi. The arrangement connects a major cryptocurrency exchange with an established prediction market operator as the industry broadens its range of products.
The expansion is not without regulatory uncertainty. Legal challenges to sports-related contracts in several U.S. states could influence whether cryptocurrency exchanges pursue further opportunities in prediction markets. The disputes introduce a potential constraint for companies considering expansion, although their ultimate effect on individual platforms remains uncertain.
For now, the reported record shows that crypto-related contracts have become the second-largest prediction market category by volume on both Kalshi and Polymarket, behind sports. The $2.7 billion weekly total was driven mainly by short-term bets on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency price movements, according to data cited by Bloomberg.
Writer: Victoria HaleTechnology & Blockchain WriterVictoria Hale writes about blockchain technology, digital infrastructure, and the intersection of emerging technologies with finance. Her articles explore how new protocols and systems are shaping the evolving digital economy.She prioritises clarity and accuracy when explaining technical developments to a general audience.
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