Vitalik Buterin Sees 60% Chance SNARKs, FHE and iO Reach Under 10x Overhead

Vitalik Buterin says SNARKs, FHE and iO could eventually reach less than 10x computational overhead.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin estimates there is a 60% chance that three advanced cryptographic technologies — SNARKs, fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) and indistinguishability obfuscation (iO) — could eventually operate with less than 10 times the computational overhead of conventional methods.

Buterin said the first of these technologies to reach that threshold is likely to be SNARKs, with the milestone potentially arriving by the end of the decade. The comments were reported by Cointelegraph in a post on X.

The estimate points to a long-term efficiency target for cryptographic techniques that are already used or being researched for applications involving privacy, verification and computation.

SNARKs Could Reach the Threshold First

Among the three technologies, Buterin expects SNARKs to be the first to achieve an overhead of less than 10x, although he did not provide a specific year for that development.

SNARKs, or succinct non-interactive arguments of knowledge, allow one party to prove that a computation was performed correctly without requiring another party to independently reproduce the entire computation. The technology has become an important component of zero-knowledge systems used across the blockchain industry.

The significance of the efficiency threshold lies in the computational cost associated with cryptographic proofs. Lower overhead can make advanced verification techniques more practical for applications where computing resources and processing time are constraints.

FHE and iO Remain Part of Longer-Term Outlook

Buterin also included fully homomorphic encryption and indistinguishability obfuscation in his assessment.

FHE allows computations to be performed on encrypted data without first decrypting it. This makes it a key area of research for applications that require computation while keeping underlying information confidential.

Indistinguishability obfuscation is a more advanced cryptographic technique designed to make it difficult to determine how an obfuscated program works while preserving its functionality. It has been studied as a potential foundation for a range of privacy and cryptographic applications.

Buterin's 60% estimate applies to the possibility that all three technologies can eventually reach the under-10x overhead threshold. His statement does not establish that the milestone will be achieved or provide a guaranteed timetable for FHE or iO.

End-of-Decade Target

The only specific timing mentioned in the statement concerns the first technology expected to reach the threshold. Buterin said that this is likely to be SNARKs and that it could happen by the end of the decade.

The estimate places efficiency, rather than the introduction of the underlying cryptographic techniques, at the center of the prediction. SNARKs, FHE and iO are already established areas of cryptographic research, but achieving substantially lower computational overhead remains an important technical challenge.

For now, Buterin's assessment sets out a probability rather than a confirmed development. The key milestone identified in his statement is whether SNARKs can reach less than 10x overhead by the end of the decade.

writer: Ethan Collins
Crypto Journalist
Ethan Collins reports on developments across the cryptocurrency and blockchain sector. His work covers market movements, protocol updates, regulatory changes, and emerging trends in digital assets.
He focuses on presenting complex topics in a clear and accessible manner for a broad readership.