Vitalik Buterin Rejects Claim AI Could Crash Bitcoin 50%

Vitalik Buterin rejects claims that AI could crash Bitcoin by 50%, citing the low probability of a fundamental security break.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has rejected a forecast that artificial intelligence could undermine Bitcoin’s security and trigger a price collapse of more than 50% within two years, arguing that the network should be able to address most vulnerabilities without requiring fundamental changes.

Cointelegraph reported the comments in a post on X. Buterin said he takes the opposite side of the forecast and argued that the probability of an actual break in Bitcoin’s hashing system or proof-of-work mechanism is “tiny.”

The debate began after AI-risk commentator and investor Liron Shapira gave a 50% probability that Bitcoin would fall by more than half within two years because advances in AI could weaken assumptions about the network’s security and robustness.

Buterin Sees Bitcoin Adapting to Security Threats

Buterin said his view is based partly on his optimism about cybersecurity over the long term. He identified the transition to new security measures as a more difficult challenge than dealing with vulnerabilities that can be addressed through software and infrastructure upgrades.

According to Buterin, Bitcoin should be capable of handling problems that do not require broad social consensus. He specifically pointed to upgrading clients and mining pools to respond to network-layer attacks as examples of issues that could be addressed without fundamentally changing Bitcoin’s rules.

His assessment separates conventional security vulnerabilities from a direct compromise of the cryptographic foundations supporting Bitcoin. Buterin considers the latter scenario considerably less likely.

The distinction is important because an AI system discovering a software vulnerability would not necessarily amount to a failure of Bitcoin’s underlying cryptography. A fundamental break in the network’s hashing or proof-of-work assumptions would present a substantially different challenge.

90% of Buterin’s Net Worth Already on the Line

Buterin also addressed the possibility of making a financial wager over the competing forecasts.

“I would offer a bet, but given what my holdings are I'm basically taking this bet,” he said, adding that roughly 90% of his net worth was already positioned on the opposite side of the prediction.

The comment was not presented as a new investment transaction. Rather, Buterin was referring to his existing holdings and their exposure to the broader cryptographic assumptions underpinning major blockchain networks.

He also suggested that the same reasoning would apply to Ethereum, which relies on cryptographic technology of its own.

Debate Centers on AI and Bitcoin Security

Shapira’s forecast focuses on whether increasingly capable AI systems could weaken security guarantees that Bitcoin users currently rely upon. His estimate assigns a 50% probability to a decline of more than 50% within two years.

Buterin does not dispute that AI could create new cybersecurity challenges. His argument is that many such problems can be addressed through upgrades and coordinated responses, while an actual break of Bitcoin’s hashes or proof-of-work remains highly unlikely in his assessment.

The disagreement therefore centers less on whether AI will affect cybersecurity and more on whether those advances could reach the point of fundamentally compromising Bitcoin’s core security assumptions.

For now, Shapira’s forecast provides a two-year timeframe for his prediction, while Buterin has publicly positioned himself against that outcome.

writer: Ethan Collins
Crypto Journalist
Ethan Collins reports on developments across the cryptocurrency and blockchain sector. His work covers market movements, protocol updates, regulatory changes, and emerging trends in digital assets.
He focuses on presenting complex topics in a clear and accessible manner for a broad readership.