JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Could Gain More Support Than Gold as ETF Hedges Unwind

Bitcoin could receive more support than gold if investors reduce defensive hedges around exchange-traded funds, according to JPMorgan analysts, who pointed to significantly higher short interest in BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF compared with a major gold fund.

The analysis comes as positioning in the two markets diverges. Gold ETFs have recovered all of their cumulative outflows recorded during 2026, while Bitcoin ETFs have recovered only about half, according to data cited by Coin Bureau from JPMorgan’s analysis.

JPMorgan’s analysts said the difference in positioning leaves Bitcoin with a larger pool of defensive positions that could be reduced if market participants unwind their hedges. The bank’s conclusion concerns relative positioning rather than a forecast for Bitcoin or gold prices.

Bitcoin ETF Flows Lag Gold Recovery

Both Bitcoin and gold ETFs attracted inflows following the Federal Reserve’s late-July meeting, when the so-called debasement trade returned to financial markets, according to JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.

The recovery has not been uniform. Gold ETFs have completely recovered the outflows accumulated earlier in 2026, while spot Bitcoin ETFs have recovered roughly 50% of those withdrawals. JPMorgan said Bitcoin ETF demand had also weakened in recent days, leaving the products with more unrecovered outflows than their gold counterparts.

The World Gold Council separately reported that global gold-backed ETFs attracted $18 billion in August, pushing combined assets under management to $615 billion and holdings to a record 4,189 tons as of Aug. 31.

IBIT Short Interest Near 2026 High

The more notable difference for JPMorgan is investor positioning through short positions and options.

Short interest in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, known by its ticker IBIT, remains near its highest level of the year, according to the bank. By comparison, short interest in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, or GLD, is below its historical average.

JPMorgan also pointed to the put-to-call open-interest ratio for IBIT, which remains higher than the corresponding historical level for GLD. The bank interpreted the difference as evidence of greater hedging demand around Bitcoin than gold.

That positioning matters because short positions and protective options can be reduced when investors become less defensive. JPMorgan said the comparatively elevated short interest surrounding IBIT could therefore provide more support for Bitcoin relative to gold if that hedging demand declines.

JPMorgan Focuses on Positioning, Not Price Targets

The bank's analysis does not amount to a standalone prediction that Bitcoin will rise or outperform gold under all circumstances. JPMorgan explicitly noted that other factors can affect the trajectories of both assets.

The assessment instead focuses on the amount of defensive positioning embedded in their respective ETF markets. With gold ETFs having already recovered their 2026 outflows and Bitcoin ETFs having recovered only half, the two markets enter any potential markets reduction in hedging from different starting points.

For now, JPMorgan’s conclusion rests on the continued divergence in ETF flows, short interest and options positioning between Bitcoin and gold. The bank identified a reduction in Bitcoin-related hedging as the specific condition that could provide additional relative support.

Writer: Victoria Hale
Technology & Blockchain Writer

Victoria Hale writes about blockchain technology, digital infrastructure, and the intersection of emerging technologies with finance. Her articles explore how new protocols and systems are shaping the evolving digital economy.

She prioritises clarity and accuracy when explaining technical developments to a general audience.