EGRAG Crypto Warns XRP Could Fall Toward $1 After CLARITY Act Vote
Crypto analyst EGRAG Crypto has outlined a bearish XRP scenario that could see the token fall toward $1 before a broader recovery, pointing to XRP’s extended weakness below its two-week 21-period exponential moving average (EMA).
The analysis came as the U.S. Senate prepared to consider the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, legislation that has been closely watched across the cryptocurrency market. The Senate ultimately failed to advance the bill on Sept. 15, with the cloture motion receiving 49 votes in favor and 50 against, short of the 60 votes required to move the legislation toward debate. The vote was procedural rather than a final vote on the bill.
EGRAG had identified the possibility of what he described as “CLARITY Act disappointment” as a potential factor behind XRP’s technical weakness.
XRP Remains Below Two-Week 21 EMA
According to EGRAG’s analysis, XRP had remained below its 21-period EMA on the two-week chart for roughly six weeks.
The analyst noted that XRP historically does not always reclaim the moving average immediately after extended weakness. Instead, the chart can involve an initial test, rejection and retest before a clearer directional move develops.
Repeated wicks below the 21 EMA have therefore raised the possibility of another rejection. EGRAG’s chart indicated that such a move could initially take XRP toward $1.15 before testing the $1 level.
At the time of his analysis, XRP was trading near $1.41. A decline to $1.15 would represent an approximate 18% drop from that level, while a move to $1 would amount to a decline of nearly 29%.
EGRAG characterized the $1 area as a potential accumulation zone rather than simply a downside target. His longer-term chart projection showed XRP potentially forming a double bottom before attempting to resume its broader upward trend within an ascending price channel.
CLARITY Act Vote Adds Regulatory Uncertainty
The regulatory backdrop was another key part of the market discussion surrounding XRP.
The latest Senate version of the CLARITY Act incorporated 126 substantive changes requested by Democrats, including provisions involving ethics restrictions and enforcement authority for state attorneys general. Senate Republicans released the revised text ahead of the scheduled procedural vote in an effort to address outstanding objections.
 |
| Source: Xpost |
Banking organizations also raised concerns about provisions involving rewards associated with stablecoins and the potential effect on bank deposits and lending capacity. The revised proposal gave the Treasury secretary authority to intervene if stablecoin-related activity was found to have a detrimental effect on banks with less than $10 billion in assets.
However, the Senate vote on Sept. 15 failed to provide the 60 votes needed to advance the legislation. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, meaning additional Democratic or independent support was required for the procedural motion to succeed.
The result leaves the CLARITY Act procedurally stalled rather than enacted. Because the vote concerned whether the Senate could proceed toward consideration, it did not itself constitute a final rejection of the legislation as law.
XRP Must Reclaim Key Levels to Challenge Bearish Setup
EGRAG’s technical outlook identifies several price levels that would become relevant if XRP avoids the projected decline.
The analyst highlighted $1.48 as an important level that buyers would need to reclaim. Above that area, his longer-term Fibonacci targets are positioned around $2.31, $3.60, $5.41, $6.90 and $9.08.
The bearish setup would be invalidated, according to EGRAG’s analysis, if XRP successfully reclaimed the two-week 21 EMA.
For now, the chart leaves two competing scenarios: a deeper correction toward the $1 area or a recovery that restores XRP above its key moving average. The CLARITY Act’s stalled progress adds a regulatory backdrop to the market, but the technical outcome for XRP remains dependent on whether the token can regain the levels identified in EGRAG’s analysis.
Writer: Marcus RenfieldCrypto Market Analyst & Onchain WriterMarcus Renfield covers cryptocurrency markets with a focus on onchain data, Bitcoin price action, and emerging market narratives. His writing examines how capital flows, network activity, and broader market structure influence short- and medium-term trends.He aims to provide clear, data-informed analysis for readers seeking a deeper understanding of crypto market dynamics.