XRP ETFs Could Drain The Supply Faster Than Expected – Steingraber Warns
Institutional XRP ETF Demand Sparks Supply Shock Concerns: How High Could Price Go?
Institutional capital is no longer knocking at the door of the XRP ecosystem — it is entering at full speed. A new analytical report circulating among market observers this week has ignited debate over one of the most pressing questions for Ripple’s native asset: How much XRP is left for the world to buy if institutional accumulation continues at this rate?
The research, conducted by independent market analyst Steingraber, suggests that recently launched XRP investment products, primarily ETFs and institutional-grade trusts, could absorb astonishing amounts of circulating supply in a surprisingly short period. At the current market trading price of approximately $2.25 per token, Steingraber estimates that $33.6 billion in yearly ETF inflows would require around 15 billion XRP, equal to 25% of the 60 billion tokens currently circulating globally.
Put plainly — if demand continues to climb as institutions onboard capital, the available supply of XRP might shrink dramatically faster than the market currently acknowledges.
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| Source: Chad_Steingraber |
The analysis has rippled across trading circles, drawing attention from retail holders, professional investors, and banking analysts. Many now ask the same critical question: If supply disappears, where does the price go?
ETF Expansion Accelerates as Traditional Finance Moves In
The urgency around availability stems from the increasing number of investment entities targeting XRP exposure. The latest momentum came after Franklin Templeton, one of the United States’ oldest and largest asset managers, listed the Franklin XRP Trust (XRPZ) on NYSE Arca — the same institutional exchange that approves most US-regulated digital asset funds.
This launch happened alongside Grayscale’s XRP-ETF (GXRP) and Grayscale Dogecoin ETF (GDOG), both of which began trading publicly on November 24. The approval was processed following SEC documentation review and exchange compliance filings, opening the door for large capital pools to participate legally and efficiently.
Meanwhile, November has seen multiple new XRP investment vehicles hit the market:
• Canary Capital launched its XRPC fund on November 13, recording notable early trading volumes
• Bitwise and other Wall Street institutional products continue to expand, giving global investors more pathways to take XRP exposure
• Over-the-counter institutional desks are reporting higher liquidity requests from asset managers
This level of traditional finance crossover is something XRP holders have waited years to see. But every movement comes with a consequence — and this one may lead to a structural liquidity imbalance unlike anything the market has seen since Bitcoin’s ETF era.
Why XRP Supply Matters More Than Ever
While XRP has a total supply of 100 billion, only about 60 billion is circulating, and exchange-tracked liquidity is alarmingly low.
Current estimates suggest that centralized trading platforms hold only 1–2 billion tokens available for sale, meaning a sudden influx of institutional purchasing could clear exchange inventory rapidly. If ETFs continue to swallow circulating supply, price volatility may rise exponentially.
Steingraber summarizes the situation simply:
“The price of XRP must be extremely high.”
His reasoning is mathematical, not speculative. If ETFs receive billions in yearly inflows, they must purchase large amounts of XRP at current pricing. But if price increases significantly, the number of tokens required per dollar drops dramatically — easing pressure on supply.
If price remains low, demand drains supply faster.
If price rises sharply, demand stretches further with fewer tokens consumed.
How Price Scaling Reduces ETF Token Consumption
The analyst’s model illustrates what happens when XRP begins to climb:
| XRP Price | Tokens Required Annually |
|---|---|
| $2.25 (current) | 15B XRP |
| $11.25 (5x) | 2.98B XRP |
| $22.50 (10x) | 1.49B XRP |
| $45 (20x) | 746M XRP |
| $90 (40x) | 373M XRP |
| $135 (60x) | 248M XRP |
| $225 (100x) | 149M XRP |
This scale matters because ETF inflows do not slow when price rises — but token absorption does. At $2.25, ETF funds could theoretically deplete 25% of supply within 12 months. At $90, that same capital would require less than half a billion tokens.
In extreme inflow conditions, the market may be forced to reprice itself dramatically to preserve liquidity.
Possible Market Outlook: Can XRP Sustain Institution-Level Demand?
Three pathways are now being debated across market strategy desks.
Scenario 1 — Price Rises Aggressively to Maintain Liquidity
Under this scenario, ETF inflows push XRP upward rapidly to reduce the number of tokens required. Prices could escalate in strong increments — $8, $16, $30, $50, $80 — before stabilizing at a level that allows long-term institutional balance.
This is the scenario Steingraber implies as logically necessary.
Scenario 2 — Supply Shrinks First, Price Explodes Later
If accumulation continues at today's pricing, institutional wallets may absorb circulating liquidity far faster than expected. Once supply becomes tight, price discovery could become violent — similar to previous Bitcoin halving cycles that triggered scarcity-driven parabolic climbs.
This path would likely involve a supply shock event.
Scenario 3 — Real Utility Determines Long-Term Price
In this outlook, ETF demand alone does not dictate the future. Instead, Ripple’s real-world usage — primarily international settlement — plays a long-term valuation role. If bank-to-bank and cross-border adoption expands, price could be influenced gradually by utility rather than scarcity.
This is the more conservative scenario favored by risk analysts.
Unanswered Questions the Market Must Confront
Despite excitement, caution remains. Analysts remind that:
• ETF inflows can fluctuate
• Global regulators are unpredictable
• XRP adoption depends on real settlement use cases
• Macroeconomic recession could slow capital entry
Some professionals argue the ETF narrative is only one part of a bigger picture. XRP value is still tied to banking integration, remittance adoption, and Ripple’s ongoing institutional partnerships. An ETF-driven supply squeeze might trigger explosive price growth, but sustainability could rely on actual economic use — not just investor speculation.
The Beginning of a New Institutional Era
What is clear today is that XRP is now part of mainstream financial infrastructure. For the first time, Wall Street allocation models, retirement portfolios, sovereign funds, and investment trusts can legally incorporate the asset alongside traditional commodities, bonds, and equities.
That alone marks the largest structural shift in Ripple’s history.
Whether this becomes one of the greatest supply-drain bull markets ever witnessed — or a more gradual institutional adoption curve — will depend on how quickly inflows scale over the coming year.
The next six to twelve months may define XRP’s long-term economic identity.
For investors, traders, and policymakers alike, one question now stands at the center of discussion:
How high must the price rise to prevent the world from running out of XRP?
Hokanews will continue monitoring ETF inflow volumes, exchange liquidity, and institutional demand patterns as the story develops.
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