Morgan Stanley Warns: Bitcoin Enters the Fall Phase — Is the Next Bull Run Near?
Morgan Stanley strategists have identified what they describe as the “fall phase” in Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle, suggesting the world’s largest cryptocurrency may be approaching a critical inflection point. The investment bank’s analysis, led by Denny Galindo, an investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, underscores how institutional investors are beginning to reevaluate their positions amid evolving market conditions and macroeconomic uncertainty.
According to Galindo, Bitcoin’s historical price movements have followed a recognizable pattern over the years — a “three-up, one-down” rhythm that tends to repeat itself. This cyclical nature, he explained, can be visualized through a seasonal framework consisting of four distinct periods: spring, summer, fall, and winter. Currently, Galindo argues, the digital asset market has entered its “fall season” — a period when investors traditionally assess profits, rebalance portfolios, and prepare for potential downturns before the next major accumulation phase begins.
“The fall phase is not necessarily bearish,” Galindo noted. “It’s a time when both retail and institutional participants start to question the sustainability of gains and make tactical adjustments. Historically, this period precedes the next growth cycle, but it’s also a test of investor conviction.”
Institutional Strategy Shifts Amid Bitcoin’s Cycle
Morgan Stanley’s assessment highlights a growing sophistication among institutional investors in handling cryptocurrency exposure. What was once viewed as a volatile and unpredictable asset class is now being examined through structured financial models similar to those applied in commodities and macroeconomic liquidity cycles.
Galindo’s research suggests that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle — closely aligned with the network’s halving events — continues to act as a reliable guidepost for market behavior. Each halving typically reduces Bitcoin’s mining rewards, tightening supply and triggering new price rallies that unfold over several years. However, after every period of exponential growth, a cooling-off phase follows — what Galindo refers to as “fall” — before the market resets.
Major financial institutions have reportedly begun to incorporate this cyclical structure into their strategic planning. Hedge funds and wealth managers, in particular, are exploring timing-based investment models that align with Bitcoin’s historical data rather than speculative sentiment.
“It’s becoming clear that institutions are no longer treating Bitcoin as an anomaly,” said Galindo. “They’re using data-driven frameworks to optimize their entry and exit points, just as they would with any other cyclical asset.”
Technical Indicators Confirm a Transitional Phase
Bitcoin’s recent price behavior appears to reinforce Morgan Stanley’s thesis. On November 5, 2025, the cryptocurrency fell below the $99,000 threshold, breaking beneath its 365-day moving average, according to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant. This development is considered significant among analysts who monitor long-term market momentum.
The 365-day moving average serves as a major technical indicator that often reflects broader shifts in investor sentiment. When Bitcoin trades below this level, it typically signals the onset of consolidation — or, in Galindo’s terminology, the “fall” phase.
“Bitcoin’s breach of the 365-day moving average is a clear sign of momentum loss,” Moreno commented. “It doesn’t necessarily imply a long-term decline, but it does suggest that the market is adjusting to new macro realities, including interest rate policies and institutional repositioning.”
Analysts also point to declining trading volumes and a reduction in leveraged positions as additional evidence that investors are entering a more cautious phase.
Macro Environment and Investor Behavior
The global financial backdrop further supports this cautious sentiment. With central banks shifting toward a neutral-to-accommodative stance and inflation expectations stabilizing, liquidity is beginning to return to risk assets. However, Bitcoin’s correlation with broader equity markets — particularly tech-heavy indexes — means it remains vulnerable to shifts in investor risk appetite.
Morgan Stanley’s “seasonal framework” helps contextualize these macro influences. In this analogy, spring represents early accumulation following market lows, summer brings strong bullish momentum, fall marks reassessment and partial profit-taking, and winter indicates capitulation or stagnation before the next uptrend begins.
Currently, Galindo believes the market is “transitioning between summer’s exuberance and winter’s introspection.” In other words, Bitcoin’s fall phase could represent both a cooling-off period and a preparation stage for long-term accumulation opportunities.
“Investors who understand the rhythm of Bitcoin’s cycle may see this as a strategic opportunity,” Galindo added. “The key lies in identifying when fall ends and the next spring begins.”
Market Data Reflects Cooling Sentiment
On-chain data provides further evidence of this transitional moment. Active addresses have slightly declined compared to mid-2025 levels, while exchange inflows have risen — a typical signal of short-term profit-taking. Meanwhile, miner revenues remain stable, and the hash rate continues to rise, indicating that network fundamentals are still strong despite short-term price fluctuations.
Some analysts argue that Bitcoin’s current phase could resemble late 2019 or mid-2022 — periods that historically preceded major rallies within a year of entering similar conditions.
“We’ve seen this movie before,” said Moreno. “Price retracements during the fall season often lay the groundwork for the next cycle’s spring. Long-term holders who maintain conviction through volatility tend to benefit most.”
The Broader Implication for Digital Assets
Morgan Stanley’s recognition of Bitcoin’s cyclical structure also marks a shift in how traditional finance perceives digital assets. By framing cryptocurrency markets in familiar economic and seasonal terms, the bank is effectively mainstreaming crypto cycle analysis.
This approach encourages institutional investors to adopt measured, data-backed strategies, reducing speculative risk and promoting sustainable participation. As more financial institutions integrate such models, market volatility could decrease over time, creating a more stable environment for long-term growth.
Moreover, the entry of data-driven strategies from major banks like Morgan Stanley may reinforce Bitcoin’s role as a legitimate macro asset rather than a speculative digital experiment.
Conclusion: A Strategic Pause Before the Next Move
As Bitcoin enters what Morgan Stanley terms its “fall phase,” the market appears to be entering a stage of reflection rather than panic. Historical patterns, technical indicators, and macro conditions all point to a cooling period — but one that could ultimately set the foundation for the next wave of institutional accumulation.
While short-term volatility may continue, analysts suggest that this period could offer patient investors valuable opportunities to rebalance portfolios and prepare for the next major trend. As Wall Street embraces Bitcoin’s cyclical nature, the line between traditional finance and digital assets continues to blur — bringing the cryptocurrency market one step closer to full integration within the global financial ecosystem.