Is the SEC Signalling ‘Yes’ on Altcoin ETFs With July Deadline

Will Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin ETFs Finally Win SEC Approval in 2025?

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) appears poised to reshape the future of cryptocurrency investing, as optimism grows over the potential approval of several spot altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). According to fresh analysis from Bloomberg’s James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, the odds of the SEC granting approval to a broad range of altcoin ETFs have surged — a development that could mark a historic milestone in the mainstream adoption of digital assets.

Rising Odds: SEC Seen as Likely to Approve Altcoin ETFs

Bloomberg analysts Seyffart and Balchunas have updated their outlook, stating they now assign a 90% or greater probability that the SEC will approve most pending spot crypto ETF applications by year-end 2025. This marks a significant jump from earlier forecasts, where approval chances hovered below the 90% threshold.

Their optimism centers on the SEC’s increasingly constructive engagement with ETF issuers. Notably, the analysts highlight that filings involving altcoins with 19b-4 forms — such as Litecoin, Solana, and XRP — now carry a 95% chance of approval, while applications tied to Dogecoin, Cardano, Hedera (HBAR), and Avalanche are seen as having 90% approval odds.

In total, over 20 altcoin ETF applications are awaiting decisions. A final determination from the SEC is expected as early as late July 2025, when the agency could choose to approve, deny, or delay these submissions for further public comment and industry rebuttal.

Leadership Change and Political Climate Shape Outlook

A key factor driving this shift in sentiment is the SEC’s leadership change. Paul Atkins assumed the chairmanship in April 2025, signaling what many in the industry interpret as a more crypto-friendly regulatory stance. Atkins, known for advocating market-driven solutions, has encouraged SEC staff to engage in deeper dialogue with asset managers, contributing to what analysts describe as “positive engagement.”

Beyond leadership, the broader political environment has also played a role. President Donald Trump’s administration has maintained a lenient approach to digital assets, creating an atmosphere where the SEC faces growing pressure to accommodate crypto innovation.

“The SEC’s tone has evolved considerably. There’s now a real sense of momentum toward integrating digital assets into regulated financial markets,” said Seyffart in an interview.

Wall Street Interest in Altcoin ETFs Surges

Demand for altcoin ETFs is not coming from fringe players. Major asset managers — including BlackRock, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, VanEck, and Grayscale — have submitted applications to launch spot crypto funds. The surge in filings reflects a growing belief that investors want exposure to a broader range of cryptocurrencies within the secure, familiar wrapper of an ETF.

Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, has even coined the phrase “Altcoin ETF Summer,” forecasting substantial inflows into funds tracking XRP, Solana, and other major altcoins. Some institutional banks, including JPMorgan and Standard Chartered, estimate that XRP ETFs alone could attract as much as $8 billion in assets during their first year on the market.

Source: X

Why Timing Still Matters

Despite the upbeat outlook, the timeline for approval and launch remains uncertain. The SEC is renowned for its cautious, methodical approach to new financial products. The agency’s rigorous reviews focus on protecting investors and mitigating risks related to market manipulation and insufficient liquidity.

Bloomberg analysts note that while constructive dialogue and regulatory openness are encouraging signs, actual ETF launches could still face months of procedural hurdles. A delay beyond July 2025 could dampen the market’s enthusiasm temporarily. However, the momentum behind altcoin ETFs suggests that approval — whether in late summer or later in the year — is increasingly likely.

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Pave the Way

The SEC’s evolving position has been heavily influenced by the success of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Since their approvals, these funds have collectively gathered more than $100 billion in assets under management, demonstrating both investor appetite and the capacity of crypto ETFs to function within established regulatory frameworks.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has led the charge, becoming the most successful ETF debut in U.S. history with $70 billion in assets after only 341 days of trading. These precedents have helped build confidence that altcoin ETFs can similarly attract inflows while operating within regulatory safeguards.

Market Reaction: Price Volatility Reflects Rising Expectations

The crypto markets have reacted with both excitement and caution. XRP has been trading near $2.14, experiencing intraday swings between $2.15 and $2.25 as ETF speculation drives buying interest. Solana (SOL) and Dogecoin (DOGE) have seen more mixed results, with SOL down about 5% and DOGE slipping 3% amid broader market volatility.

Analysts suggest that official approval of altcoin ETFs could trigger a rotation of capital from Bitcoin and Ethereum into newly sanctioned altcoin products. Such a shift could deepen liquidity in these markets and help solidify their status as institutional-grade assets.

Potential Risks and Regulatory Considerations

While optimism is high, experts caution that altcoin ETFs present unique challenges. Questions about liquidity, market structure, and underlying technology continue to concern regulators. Furthermore, altcoins tend to exhibit higher price volatility and lower trading volumes compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum, factors that the SEC will likely scrutinize carefully before granting final approval.

There’s also the matter of market manipulation. The SEC’s historic resistance to crypto ETFs stemmed in part from fears that prices could be unduly influenced by bad actors. Proponents argue that these concerns can be addressed through robust surveillance agreements and partnerships with regulated market operators — mechanisms that helped pave the way for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

Conclusion: A Defining Moment for Altcoin Adoption

The next few months could prove decisive in determining how deeply altcoins penetrate mainstream finance. Should the SEC approve Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, and other altcoin ETFs, it would represent not just a victory for crypto advocates, but a profound validation of digital assets as a permanent fixture of the global financial landscape.

The stakes are high. As analysts like Seyffart and Balchunas see it, the stars are aligning for a new wave of crypto products to hit the market — one that could reshape investor portfolios and drive the next chapter in the digital asset revolution.

Writer @Erlin

Erlin is an experienced crypto writer who loves to explore the intersection of blockchain technology and financial markets. She regularly provides insights into the latest trends and innovations in the digital currency space.

 

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