Santiment Flags Rising XRP Shorts as $0.99 Price Prediction Faces November 19 Test
Blockchain analytics firm Santiment has identified growing bearish positions among some of the most profitable XRP traders, even as large-holder wallets continue to increase. Its latest analysis shows that three active short positions added approximately 2.1 million XRP since late October, bringing renewed attention to a trader's prediction that the cryptocurrency could fall to $0.99.
Santiment shared the findings on X on November 6, comparing trading activity among profitable XRP wallets with a price forecast submitted to its Score Arena platform. The prediction suggested XRP could decline to approximately $0.99, with the bearish call considered invalid if the token closed above $1.36.
“A trader called $XRP lower, to ~$0.99, and said the call is wrong if $XRP closes above $1.36. $XRP is down ~10% since,” Santiment stated.
Santiment Identifies Growing XRP Short Positions
The analytics firm also examined positions held by the most profitable XRP wallets tracked in its data. According to Santiment, only one wallet in this group maintained a long position, and that account had not executed a trade since August.
Meanwhile, three active short positions had collectively increased their exposure by approximately 2.1 million XRP since late October.
In perpetual futures markets, traders use collateral to gain exposure to cryptocurrency price movements without directly owning the underlying tokens. Short positions generate potential gains when prices decline, while long positions benefit from upward movements.
These derivatives positions should be distinguished from spot wallet balances, which represent cryptocurrency holdings rather than leveraged or directional trading exposure.
XRP $0.99 Prediction Approaches November 19 Resolution
The bearish forecast was also examined through Score Arena, Santiment's platform for evaluating and funding selected traders. In its November 6 update, the firm questioned whether the trader's prediction reflected accurate market analysis or simply benefited from a broader market downturn.
“Called it, or lucky timing? The whole market dropped too,” Santiment commented.
At the time of that assessment, the firm estimated XRP needed to decline approximately another 17% to reach the $0.99 target. With XRP trading near $1.16 on November 7, the remaining decline required to reach the forecast was approximately 15%.
The prediction also established $1.36 as the price level that would invalidate the bearish call if XRP closed above it. The forecast was scheduled for resolution on November 19, although Santiment's November 6 update indicated that the prediction window would close in less than two days.
All three traders who opposed the bearish forecast on Score had been positioned on the wrong side of XRP's decline, according to Santiment. Their results remained provisional ahead of the scheduled resolution.
How Santiment's Score Arena Platform Works
Score Arena allows traders to submit cryptocurrency forecasts while token holders can support participants based on their performance. Users can also back or oppose individual predictions.
Under the platform's allocation model, Santiment provides its own trading capital to selected participants. Tokens staked by community members remain outside the actual trades.
Santiment described Score as a closed-beta product in its November 6 comments, meaning access remained limited to invited participants during the testing phase.
XRP Million-Token Wallets Reach 2026 High
Despite the increase in bearish derivatives activity, separate blockchain data showed continued growth in the number of large XRP holders.
Santiment reported that wallets containing at least 1 million XRP reached 2,147 on November 3, marking the highest count recorded in 2026. The category added 28 addresses over a 10-day period.
The metric tracks wallet addresses that meet the specified holding threshold, offering a separate view of large XRP balances alongside the firm's analysis of futures trading positions.
The XRP Ledger also recorded 7,934 new wallets on November 1, its sixth-highest daily wallet creation figure of the year.
Santiment identified several conditions for assessing the network's outlook. Daily wallet creation remaining above approximately 4,000, combined with an XRP price recovery above $1.30, would support a more constructive signal.
Conversely, a decline below $1.20 alongside daily wallet creation falling under 3,000 would weaken that outlook, the analytics firm said.
Binance XRP Scarcity Gauge Reaches Four-Year High
Another development emerged from cryptocurrency exchange reserves. A Binance XRP scarcity gauge reached a four-year high near 2.1 in an analysis published by CryptoQuant on November 5.
The indicator measures the relative availability of XRP for trading, with higher readings suggesting greater scarcity. However, separate reserve figures showed that Binance held approximately 2.63 billion XRP on November 5, compared with 2.35 billion on November 3.
The combination of rising short exposure, increasing large-holder wallet counts and changing exchange reserve indicators presents different signals about XRP market positioning.
While Santiment's derivatives data highlights growing bearish activity among selected profitable traders, its wallet statistics show an increase in addresses holding at least 1 million XRP. The $0.99 prediction's November 19 resolution provides a defined date for evaluating the trader's forecast.
source: news.bitcoin
Writer: Ethan Collins
Crypto Journalist
Ethan Collins reports on developments across the cryptocurrency and blockchain sector. His work covers market movements, protocol updates, regulatory changes, and emerging trends in digital assets.
He focuses on presenting complex topics in a clear and accessible manner for a broad readership.
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