S&P 500 Gained After All 19 U.S. Midterm Elections Since 1950
The S&P 500 recorded gains one year after every U.S. midterm election from 1950 through 2022, according to historical market data highlighted by Coin Bureau. Across the 19 midterm election cycles, the index averaged a 16.6% increase over BNY's post-midterm measurement window, which begins on October 31.
The figures point to a consistent historical pattern in U.S. equities following midterm elections. However, the reported performance describes what happened in previous cycles and does not establish that midterm elections themselves caused the gains or guarantee a similar outcome in future years.
Historical S&P 500 Performance After Midterms
BNY's measurement of the 19 midterm cycles between 1950 and 2022 showed an average S&P 500 gain of 16.6% over the post-midterm period. The weakest result came after the 2014 midterm elections, when the index gained 3.0%. The strongest performance followed the 1954 midterms, with an increase of 33.6%.
The comparison covers a period of more markets than seven decades and includes a range of U.S. political and economic environments. Despite the differences between individual election cycles, the historical figures cited by Coin Bureau show that the S&P 500 finished higher one year after each of the 19 midterm elections included in the analysis.
Midterms Also Outperformed Presidential Elections in Early Returns
Coin Bureau also highlighted a separate CNBC analysis covering the period from 1980 through 2024. That comparison examined stock market performance after midterm elections and presidential elections across three shorter time frames: one day, one week and one month.
In the one-day period, the market gained 0.5% after midterm elections, compared with a 0.1% decline after presidential elections. Over one week, midterms were followed by a 1.0% gain, while presidential elections recorded a 0.5% decline.
The difference continued over one month. The S&P 500 gained 1.5% after midterm elections, compared with a 0.8% increase following presidential elections.
One-Year Returns Were Nearly Identical
The longer-term comparison showed a much smaller difference between the two election categories. After one year, average gains stood at 13.7% following midterm elections and 13.8% following presidential elections.
That result contrasts with the stronger financial early returns recorded after midterms in CNBC's analysis. While midterm elections outperformed presidential elections over the one-day, one-week and one-month periods, the average one-year gains were nearly identical.
The historical figures therefore present two related but distinct observations: the S&P 500 gained in all 19 post-midterm periods measured by BNY from 1950 through 2022, while CNBC's separate 1980–2024 comparison found that the early market gains after midterms were stronger than those following presidential elections.
Writer: Victoria HaleTechnology & Blockchain WriterVictoria Hale writes about blockchain technology, digital infrastructure, and the intersection of emerging technologies with finance. Her articles explore how new protocols and systems are shaping the evolving digital economy.She prioritises clarity and accuracy when explaining technical developments to a general audience.
Check out other news and articles on Google News
Disclaimer:
The articles on Hokanews are here to keep you updated on the latest buzz in crypto, tech, and beyond—but they’re not financial advice. We’re sharing info, trends, and insights, not telling you to buy, sell, or invest. Always do your own homework before making any money moves.
Hokanews isn’t responsible for any losses, gains, or chaos that might happen if you act on what you read here. Investment decisions should come from your own research—and, ideally, guidance from a qualified financial advisor. Remember: crypto and tech move fast, info changes in a blink, and while we aim for accuracy, we can’t promise it’s 100% complete or up-to-date.