Bitcoin Below $80,000 Could Trigger Wider Crypto Market Losses, Bloomberg Strategist Warns
In a recent post on X, McGlone pointed to the relative performance of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). The comparison suggests that Bitcoin exposure has struggled to outperform government bond investments despite major developments aimed at expanding cryptocurrency adoption.
Bitcoin ETF Underperforms Treasury Bonds by 19%
McGlone reported that the IBIT-to-TLT performance ratio stood at 81 on October 30. Using a baseline of 100 established at the end of 2024, the reading indicates that IBIT underperformed its Treasury bond counterpart by approximately 19% over the period measured.
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| Source: McGlone |
The ratio has struggled to stay above 100 since the fourth quarter of 2025, according to McGlone. He also noted that IBIT experiences approximately four times the volatility of the Treasury bond ETF, underscoring the difference in risk between the two investment vehicles.
The comparison does not establish that Bitcoin must decline further, but McGlone considers its relative weakness an important market signal. His assessment suggests investors should look beyond Bitcoin's standalone price and examine how it performs against traditional assets.
McGlone Questions Bitcoin's Performance After Major 2024 Developments
McGlone also questioned whether Bitcoin has already passed its strongest period of growth. His assessment comes despite significant developments in 2024, including the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States.
The strategist also cited President Donald Trump's shift from cryptocurrency critic to a prominent supporter of the industry. However, Bitcoin has not outperformed long-term US Treasury bonds over the period covered by McGlone's comparison.
The contrast raises questions about how these adoption and political developments have translated into relative investment performance. McGlone's analysis focuses on market returns rather than treating increased institutional participation or political support as guarantees of stronger prices.
Why the $80,000 Bitcoin Level Matters
The $80,000 threshold is central to McGlone's warning. He cautioned that continued weakness below this level could increase the risk of losses across the broader cryptocurrency market.
His concern extends beyond Bitcoin itself, with the strategist pointing to the potential implications for other digital assets and financial markets. The relative performance of Bitcoin against government bonds forms another part of his assessment of mounting market pressure.
McGlone's comments represent a market warning rather than confirmation that a broader sell-off will occur. Bitcoin's future direction remains uncertain, and the performance ratio between IBIT and TLT alone does not establish the timing or scale of any potential decline.
Writer: Marcus RenfieldCrypto Market Analyst & Onchain WriterMarcus Renfield covers cryptocurrency markets with a focus on onchain data, Bitcoin price action, and emerging market narratives. His writing examines how capital flows, network activity, and broader market structure influence short- and medium-term trends.He aims to provide clear, data-informed analysis for readers seeking a deeper understanding of crypto market dynamics.