US Treasury Bitcoin Purchase Odds Reach 21% on Kalshi, but Thin Trading Raises Questions
Kalshi traders have assigned a 21% probability to the U.S. Treasury completing a Bitcoin purchase for a government-held reserve by Jan. 1, 2028. However, limited trading activity and legal restrictions complicate the outlook, while the market's shorter-term contract puts the probability of a purchase by the end of 2026 at just 2%.
The distinction is important because the 2028 contract requires an announcement confirming a completed Bitcoin purchase for a government reserve. Speeches, policy studies and executive orders alone do not satisfy its stated conditions.
Kalshi Bitcoin Purchase Market Has Limited Liquidity
Despite the 21% probability shown in the source material, trading activity in the longer-dated contract remained limited. The report cited total contract volume of $1,617 at the time, with Kalshi data from earlier that day showing approximately 309 contracts traded on the Jan. 1, 2028, deadline and around 1,305 on the 2026 contract.
The market's pricing subsequently moved lower. By Monday morning, the last trade on the 2028 contract had fallen to 11%, with bids at 12 cents and offers at 17 cents. The movement illustrates how prices in a thinly traded prediction market can shift substantially without broad participation.
A separate Kalshi market asks whether U.S. President Donald Trump will establish a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan. 1, 2027. That contract had recorded close to 200,000 trades and was priced at approximately 3.5%, according to the report.
Prediction-market probabilities should not be treated as definitive forecasts. Bitcoin.com News recently reported that major prediction platforms misjudged Brazil's presidential runoff, with traders having priced Lula da Silva's chances at around 17% the night before his victory.
Bitcoin Price Bets Point to Further Downside Risks
Separate Kalshi contracts indicate that traders are also assessing the possibility of additional Bitcoin price declines. Whale Insider highlighted bets on Bitcoin falling as low as $78,000 during the month.
Kalshi's October contracts showed the market for Bitcoin dropping below $80,000 effectively settled following the previous week's decline. The contract for a fall below $77,500 traded near 44%, with more than 117,000 contracts, while the probability attached to a drop below $75,000 stood at approximately 16%.
Bitcoin fell to $79,146 over the weekend, according to the source material. Peter Schiff had also suggested that the cryptocurrency could decline to $75,000.
Crypto-related prediction-market activity has expanded alongside these bets. Kalshi and Polymarket recorded a combined weekly record of $2.7 billion in crypto contracts, with Bitcoin wagers accounting for most of the activity, the report said.
Legal and Policy Constraints Complicate a Treasury Purchase
The prospect of a direct U.S. Treasury Bitcoin purchase faces policy and legal hurdles. In April, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told the House Armed Services Committee that he had long been enthusiastic about the potential of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. He described related Pentagon work as classified.
However, favorable comments from officials do not establish that the government has the authority or funding to buy Bitcoin on the open market. Market tracker Octagon noted that the executive order establishing the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve prohibits open-market purchases. The BITCOIN Act, which would mandate buying, has not been enacted, according to the report.
Without new legislation or a budget-neutral mechanism, the Treasury has no clear path to announcing a completed purchase under the contract's stated terms. The source outlines several possible outcomes, including Congress approving reserve purchase authority in 2027, the government pursuing a budget-neutral transaction that raises questions about how a purchase is defined, or the reserve continuing to grow through asset seizures rather than new acquisitions.
For now, the 21% figure reflects a thin prediction market rather than confirmation that the U.S. Treasury intends to buy Bitcoin. Whether the contract's probability rises will depend on policy developments and the market's precise settlement conditions.
source: news.bitcoin
Writer: Ethan Collins
Crypto Journalist
Ethan Collins reports on developments across the cryptocurrency and blockchain sector. His work covers market movements, protocol updates, regulatory changes, and emerging trends in digital assets.
He focuses on presenting complex topics in a clear and accessible manner for a broad readership.
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