Bitwise Raises Bitcoin Price Target to $1.6 Million by 2036 in New Long-Term Forecast
Bitcoin could reach $1,599,766 by 2036 under a new long-term forecast from asset manager Bitwise Asset Management, which projects that expanding institutional investment and growing demand for alternative stores of value will support the cryptocurrency's price over the next decade.
The base-case projection, released on Oct. 28, implies compound annual growth of 34.3% from Bitwise's Sept. 30, 2026, reference price of $83,557. The forecast represents a substantial increase from the firm's previous target of $1.3 million by 2035, which implied annualized growth of 28.3%.
Bitwise attributed the revised outlook to the expanding markets Bitcoin could serve and greater confidence in its long-term trajectory. However, the forecast comes after Bitcoin experienced a roughly 53% decline from its October 2025 high to its June 2026 low, underscoring the volatility investors may continue to face.
Bitwise Bitcoin Price Prediction Depends on Institutional Adoption
Bitwise's valuation model assumes Bitcoin will capture 25% of a combined gold-and-Bitcoin market projected to grow from $31.1 trillion to $109.8 trillion by 2036. The firm expects rising government debt and currency debasement to support demand for assets that investors may use to preserve value.
The model also assumes Bitcoin will account for 1% of a projected $303.5 trillion institutional investment market, with additional contributions coming from other potential uses.
Ryan Rasmussen, Bitwise's head of research and a co-author of the report, acknowledged that significant price fluctuations are likely to remain part of Bitcoin's investment profile.
“Bitcoin will likely remain a volatile asset with sharp downturns, but all signs point to these swings weakening as institutional adoption deepens,” Rasmussen said.
Bitwise also cited interviews with 15 institutions as supporting evidence for its adoption thesis. According to the firm, existing holders maintained their cryptocurrency allocations during a roughly 50% market decline between October 2025 and April 2026, while several participants increased their positions. The institutions interviewed included pension funds, endowments and sovereign wealth funds.
Institutional Bitcoin Allocations Could Reach 5%
Bitwise's updated outlook projects that institutional investors could allocate between 1% and 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin over the next decade. Under the firm's estimates, that allocation range could translate into purchases worth $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion.
The forecast depends on institutional participation expanding over time. If investors increase their Bitcoin exposure as the market develops, the resulting demand could support higher valuations under Bitwise's model. These figures remain projections rather than confirmed future investment commitments.
Bitcoin's limited supply is another central component of the valuation framework. The cryptocurrency has a maximum supply of 21 million coins, and Bitwise's calculations distribute estimated Bitcoin value across that full limit, including coins that have yet to be mined and coins assumed to be lost.
The report placed Bitcoin's circulating supply at 20.1 million coins. The distinction between circulating supply and the maximum supply is important because the model accounts for the full supply limit when estimating potential value per coin.
Bitcoin Price Scenarios Range From $130,686 to $3.67 Million
Bitwise outlined three possible outcomes for Bitcoin by 2036, depending on adoption rates and the cryptocurrency's share of the markets included in its valuation model.
In the bear case, Bitcoin reaches $130,686, representing annualized growth of 4.6% from the Sept. 30, 2026, reference price of $83,557. This scenario assumes Bitcoin captures 2.5% of the projected store-of-value market and gains no share of the other categories modeled by the firm.
The base case places Bitcoin at $1,599,766 by 2036, with an implied annualized growth rate of 34.3%. This outcome assumes a 25% share of the combined gold-and-Bitcoin market and a 1% allocation from the projected institutional investment market.
In the bull case, Bitcoin reaches $3,667,911, equivalent to annualized growth of 46%. This scenario assumes Bitcoin captures 50% of the store-of-value market and 5% of institutional investment assets, alongside stronger adoption across other modeled markets.
The wide gap between the three projections illustrates how sensitive Bitwise's long-term price targets are to assumptions about market growth, institutional allocations and Bitcoin's adoption across different investment categories.
Quantum Computing and Regulation Remain Key Risks
Bitwise also identified technological developments and regulatory changes as potential threats to its long-term projections. Among the concerns is the future security of Bitcoin's cryptographic systems against advances in quantum computing.
Quantum computers use principles of quantum physics to perform calculations. If sufficiently advanced systems become available, they could threaten existing cryptographic protections. Bitwise also highlighted the possibility that advances in artificial intelligence could accelerate mathematical developments relevant to these risks.
The firm expects Bitcoin's network will need stronger cryptographic protections over time. Individual wallets could face exposure if their owners fail to migrate to more secure systems when necessary.
Regulatory reversals could also undermine the adoption assumptions underlying Bitwise's forecast. Although the firm sees growing institutional participation as a potential long-term driver, its price targets remain conditional on market development, technological resilience and the regulatory environment.
Bitwise's $1.6 million base-case target therefore represents a long-term scenario rather than a guaranteed outcome. Its bear and bull projections show how substantially Bitcoin's future valuation could differ depending on how these factors evolve through 2036.
source: news .bitcoin
Writer: Ethan Collins
Crypto Journalist
Ethan Collins reports on developments across the cryptocurrency and blockchain sector. His work covers market movements, protocol updates, regulatory changes, and emerging trends in digital assets.
He focuses on presenting complex topics in a clear and accessible manner for a broad readership.
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