XRP 100 EMA Emerges as Key Test for Potential Macro Bottom
XRP’s three-day 100 exponential moving average (EMA) has emerged as a key technical level in determining whether the cryptocurrency has reached a macro bottom, according to analyst EGRAG Crypto.
In his chart analysis, EGRAG argues that XRP needs to reclaim the three-day 100 EMA, establish support above it, retest the level and then rebound before the current correction can be viewed as potentially complete. Until those conditions are met, the analyst sees the possibility of further downside.
The setup compares XRP’s current price structure with a similar formation from the previous market cycle, when the same moving average became an important dividing line between continued weakness and a broader recovery.
XRP 100 EMA Becomes Critical Reversal Test
During the earlier cycle, XRP remained below the three-day 100 EMA as sellers repeatedly prevented sustained recoveries. The moving average continued to act as resistance until buyers eventually pushed the price above it.
XRP subsequently recorded multiple three-day closes above the indicator before returning to test the moving average. The subsequent rebound from that retest provided technical evidence that sellers had lost control and that a broader bottoming process could have been underway.
EGRAG sees similarities between that structure and XRP’s current correction. However, he does not consider a simple move toward the moving average sufficient to establish a reversal.
For bullish confirmation, XRP would need to close above the indicator and remain above it across multiple three-day candles. The subsequent retest is also important, as buyers would need to defend the moving average and generate a rebound from the level.
A successful sequence of reclaim, hold, retest and rebound would strengthen the case that the current correction has established a macro bottom.
XRP Faces $1.38-$1.40 Reaction Zone
EGRAG has identified the $1.38 to $1.40 area as an immediate reaction zone for XRP. His chart places the cryptocurrency near $1.39, where descending resistance and the rising 100 EMA appear to converge.
That creates a concentrated technical area in which XRP could face competing forces from buyers and sellers. A decisive move through the resistance structure could weaken the prevailing descending pattern and improve the broader recovery setup.
The alternative is a rejection around the 100 EMA. In that scenario, EGRAG's analysis leaves open the possibility of another decline toward the $0.95 to $1.00 region.
That lower range aligns with horizontal support and the lower boundary of the corrective structure shown in the analysis. While such a move could represent another potential entry area for investors who missed XRP near $1, it remains a technical scenario rather than a confirmed forecast.
For the bearish scenario to gain credibility, XRP would first need to fail at the 100 EMA and remain below the relevant resistance structure.
XRP Could Target $2.27 and $3.85 After Confirmation
If XRP successfully reclaims and holds the three-day 100 EMA, EGRAG identifies $2.27 as the next significant level to recover.
A sustained move above that resistance could open the way toward higher structural boundaries. The analyst has also marked $3.85 as a major macro breakout zone located near the previous cycle high.
A sustained move above $3.85 would represent a more significant change in XRP’s longer-term technical structure, according to the analysis.
The comparison also extends beyond price levels to the duration of XRP’s corrective patterns. The previous structure lasted approximately 34 three-day candles, or about 101 days, before reaching its highlighted turning area.
The current projection similarly spans 34 three-day candles, equivalent to approximately 102 days, with the projected structure extending toward November 27, 2026.
The comparable timing is part of EGRAG’s broader historical analysis, but it does not establish that XRP will repeat the previous cycle. Market conditions and price behavior can differ between cycles.
XRP’s next major technical signal therefore remains centered on the three-day 100 EMA. A successful reclaim followed by a defended retest would strengthen the case for a macro bottom, while rejection at the indicator would leave the possibility of another decline toward lower support levels.
Writer: Marcus RenfieldCrypto Market Analyst & Onchain WriterMarcus Renfield covers cryptocurrency markets with a focus on onchain data, Bitcoin price action, and emerging market narratives. His writing examines how capital flows, network activity, and broader market structure influence short- and medium-term trends.He aims to provide clear, data-informed analysis for readers seeking a deeper understanding of crypto market dynamics.