JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Could Gain More Support Than Gold if ETF Hedging Eases
The analysis was led by JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, according to reporting cited by Cointelegraph. The analysts pointed to elevated short interest and options positioning around BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) as evidence that investors continue to maintain greater downside protection around Bitcoin than gold.
Bitcoin ETF Hedging Remains Elevated
Bitcoin and gold ETFs both recorded inflows following the Federal Reserve meeting in late July, when the so-called debasement trade regained momentum, according to JPMorgan’s analysis.
That trend has weakened over the past week, however, as inflation-adjusted bond yields increased and the U.S. Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act. JPMorgan said these developments contributed to a softer backdrop for both assets.
Gold ETFs have recovered all of their earlier 2026 outflows, while Bitcoin ETFs have recovered about half, the analysts said. Bitcoin ETF demand has also declined in recent days, leaving more room for a potential recovery if market conditions and news flow improve.
The difference in ETF flows is accompanied by a notable gap in positioning between the two assets.
IBIT Short Interest Contrasts With Gold ETF Positioning
JPMorgan highlighted short interest in IBIT, which remains close to its highest level of the year. By comparison, short interest in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is below its historical average.
The analysts said the contrast indicates that Bitcoin continues to face a more skeptical positioning backdrop than gold, despite recent inflows and elevated futures positioning.
Options markets show a similar difference. The put-to-call open interest ratio for IBIT is higher than for GLD, a measure JPMorgan cited as evidence of greater demand for downside protection around Bitcoin.
The positioning does not necessarily indicate that investors have abandoned Bitcoin. Instead, it shows that institutional market participants are maintaining comparatively larger defensive positions around the cryptocurrency than around gold.
JPMorgan Focuses on Positioning Rather Than Price
JPMorgan’s assessment is based on market positioning rather than a direct forecast that Bitcoin will outperform gold.
Both assets continue to have substantial futures positioning, which the analysts said indicates continued institutional participation. The key distinction is the amount of hedging surrounding the respective ETF markets.
JPMorgan said the larger short interest in IBIT compared with GLD could provide more support for Bitcoin relative to gold if investors reduce their hedges.
That conclusion reflects a mechanical effect of positioning: if defensive short positions and other hedges are reduced, the resulting change in exposure can affect demand for the underlying market.
ETF Flows Remain an Important Indicator
The difference in recovery from earlier outflows also leaves Bitcoin and gold at different points in their respective ETF demand cycles. Gold ETFs have already recovered all of their earlier 2026 outflows, while Bitcoin ETFs have recovered approximately half, according to JPMorgan.
For Bitcoin, the analysts therefore identified the reduction in hedging demand as a potential source of additional support relative to gold, while noting that other factors can also influence the trajectories of both assets.
JPMorgan’s assessment leaves the focus on whether the unusually elevated defensive positioning around IBIT begins to ease and how ETF flows develop afterward.
writer: Ethan Collins
Crypto Journalist
Ethan Collins reports on developments across the cryptocurrency and blockchain sector. His work covers market movements, protocol updates, regulatory changes, and emerging trends in digital assets.
He focuses on presenting complex topics in a clear and accessible manner for a broad readership.
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