Glassnode Bitcoin Rebound Is Not Yet a Trend Reversal

Bitcoin’s recent recovery attempts may not yet represent the beginning of a broader market reversal, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.

The cryptocurrency remains below two important valuation levels tracked by the firm: the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at roughly $68,500 and the True Market Mean at around $75,800. Glassnode’s latest on-chain analysis continues to place Bitcoin in what it describes as a capitulation regime, suggesting that the market has not yet produced enough evidence to confirm a sustained bullish trend.

The analysis was highlighted by blockchain news account @WuBlockchain on X and comes as Bitcoin attempts to stabilize following a period of heightened selling pressure and declining investor profitability.

Although some market indicators have begun to improve, Glassnode argues that the recovery remains fragile. Until several key metrics strengthen, Bitcoin’s rebounds could continue to represent short-term rallies rather than the beginning of a new long-term uptrend.

Bitcoin Remains Below Key Market Levels

One of the main concerns identified by Glassnode is Bitcoin’s position relative to important cost-basis indicators.

The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, currently around $68,500, represents the average acquisition price of Bitcoin held by investors who acquired their coins relatively recently.

When Bitcoin trades below this level, recent buyers are generally sitting on unrealized losses. That can create additional selling pressure because investors may become more willing to reduce their exposure if prices continue falling.

Bitcoin also remains below the True Market Mean, which Glassnode places at approximately $75,800.

This metric provides another reference point for assessing the broader market’s valuation and positioning. Remaining below both levels suggests that Bitcoin has not yet recovered sufficiently to establish a convincing change in market structure.

Capitulation Has Not Fully Run Its Course

Glassnode’s models continue to characterize the current market environment as a capitulation regime.

However, the level of unrealized losses recorded during the latest downturn remains considerably lower than what was seen during previous Bitcoin market cycles.

Relative Unrealized Loss peaked at approximately 25%, according to the analysis. That compares with more than 60% during several previous major market downturns.

The difference is important because extreme unrealized losses have historically been associated with periods when large numbers of investors capitulate and sell their holdings at substantial losses.

The relatively lower level seen this time could indicate that the market has not experienced the same degree of widespread investor distress.

While that may appear positive on the surface, it also means the market may not yet have reached the type of deep seller exhaustion that has historically accompanied major turning points.

Profit and Loss Ratio Remains Weak

Another important indicator is Bitcoin’s 90-day Realized Profit/Loss Ratio.

Glassnode currently places the metric at approximately 0.75, meaning realized losses remain significant compared with realized profits among coins moving on the network.

Historically, readings below 0.5 have been associated with periods of extreme seller exhaustion.

The current reading of 0.75 is therefore above that historical threshold.

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin would need to see a stronger recovery in the profit-and-loss ratio before the market could provide more convincing evidence of a broader trend reversal.

Until then, short-term price increases could remain vulnerable to renewed selling.

Futures Demand Shows Signs of Improvement

Not every markets indicator is negative.

Glassnode noted that demand in perpetual futures has turned positive, suggesting that derivatives traders are becoming more willing to take on Bitcoin exposure.

Perpetual futures are among the most actively traded instruments in the cryptocurrency market and can provide an important indication of short-term investor positioning.

An improvement in futures demand could help support Bitcoin’s price if it develops into a sustained trend.

However, derivatives activity alone may not be enough to establish a lasting market recovery. Excessive leverage can also increase volatility and create sharp liquidations when prices move unexpectedly.

For that reason, Glassnode is looking at derivatives activity alongside on-chain data and spot-market demand.

ETF Flows Are Stabilizing

Bitcoin exchange-traded fund flows have also shown signs of stabilization.

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market has become an important source of institutional demand, making daily fund flows a closely watched indicator for investors.

Stabilizing ETF flows could reduce some of the selling pressure that has affected Bitcoin in recent weeks.

However, Glassnode's analysis suggests that stabilization is not the same as a strong return of demand.

The market needs to see sustained capital inflows before ETF activity can provide stronger evidence that institutional investors are returning aggressively to Bitcoin.

Coinbase Premium Remains Negative

Another warning sign is the Coinbase Premium.

The indicator remains negative, suggesting that U.S. spot demand has not yet returned in a meaningful way.

The Coinbase Premium is commonly monitored as an indication of buying or selling pressure among U.S.-based investors using Coinbase.

A sustained positive premium can indicate stronger U.S. demand, while a negative reading may suggest that buyers in the U.S. market remain cautious.

For Bitcoin to establish a stronger recovery, a return of positive spot demand could become an important confirmation signal.

Bitcoin Needs Stronger Confirmation

Glassnode’s assessment suggests that Bitcoin’s current recovery should be treated cautiously.

The cryptocurrency has shown the ability to rebound, but the broader market structure has not yet provided enough evidence to confirm that the downturn is over.

Bitcoin remains below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of approximately $68,500 and the True Market Mean near $75,800. At the same time, realized profit and loss metrics remain weaker than levels historically associated with market recovery.

Futures demand and ETF flows provide some encouraging signals, but the negative Coinbase Premium indicates that U.S. spot demand remains subdued.

Glassnode said that Bitcoin may need yields to ease and the 90-day Realized Profit/Loss Ratio to recover toward 2 before the market can show stronger evidence of a broader reversal.

Until those conditions develop, investors may need to view Bitcoin’s rebounds as local rallies rather than confirmation of a new bullish trend.

For the cryptocurrency market, the next phase could therefore depend less on a single sharp Bitcoin bounce and more on whether multiple on-chain, derivatives and institutional indicators begin moving in the same direction.