Bitcoin News Today: Quantum-Safe Transaction, $150,000 Forecast and U.S. Selling Risk
Bitcoin is facing several developments that could influence the market and its long-term network security. A StarkWare researcher has completed what was described as the first confirmed quantum-safe Bitcoin transaction on mainnet, while Bernstein has raised its Bitcoin price forecast to $150,000 by mid-2027.
At the same time, a recent movement of Bitcoin seized from Alameda-linked accounts by the U.S. government has renewed attention on potential selling pressure. Together, the developments highlight separate technical, market and policy factors surrounding Bitcoin.
StarkWare Researcher Completes Quantum-Safe Bitcoin Transaction
A quantum-safe Bitcoin transaction developed by StarkWare researcher Avihu Levy was confirmed on mainnet on August 26 and 27, 2026. Known as Quantum-Safe Bitcoin, or QSB, the approach replaces elliptic-curve cryptography with hash-based security.
The system is designed to operate without a soft fork or changes to Bitcoin's consensus rules, according to StarkWare. The transaction therefore represents a technical approach to addressing potential future quantum-computing risks without modifying the network's existing consensus mechanism.
The QSB scheme relies on several distinct characteristics:
Security model: The system relies on hash pre-image resistance, estimated at roughly 118-bit security under current threat models.
Computational cost: Off-chain GPU computation costs approximately $75 to $200 per transaction.
Transaction submission: Transactions are submitted directly to miners because the format does not use standard mempool relay.
Scope of protection: The system protects only Bitcoin outputs that have been migrated to the scheme. Taproot, Lightning and keys that have already been exposed are not covered.
StarkWare has characterized QSB as an interim measure rather than a permanent solution. A protocol-level soft fork remains the longer-term approach proposed for providing broader quantum resistance to Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Quantum Risk Remains a Long-Term Concern
Bitcoin does not currently face an immediate threat from a cryptographically relevant quantum computer. Leading quantum hardware is estimated to have roughly 1,000 to 1,200 physical qubits.
By comparison, breaking Bitcoin's cryptographic signatures would likely require between 1,200 and 2,300 logical qubits, equivalent to close to 500,000 physical qubits, based on Google Quantum AI analysis published in March 2026.
Several parts of Bitcoin's existing supply could nevertheless become relevant in a future quantum scenario.
Approximately 6 to 7 million BTC, representing about 30% of circulating supply, already has public keys visible on-chain. Around 2.3 million BTC is held in dormant or lost wallets.
Bitcoin's SHA-256 proof-of-work is considered comparatively resilient against quantum attacks because Grover's algorithm provides only a quadratic speedup rather than the more significant advantage associated with attacks against certain public-key cryptographic systems.
Estimates for when quantum computing could pose a practical threat vary substantially. Some projections place the probability of successful key recovery at roughly 10% by 2032, while more conservative assessments point to a 20-to-40-year timeframe.
Proposals including BIP-360 and Blockstream's SHRINCS scheme are among efforts aimed at establishing post-quantum protection for Bitcoin over time.
Bitcoin Price Today Holds Near $79,500
Bitcoin was trading near $79,503, gaining 1.34% over 24 hours as the wider cryptocurrency market rose by approximately 1.2%.
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| Source: CoinMaketCap |
The latest market figures were:
Bitcoin price: $79,503.41, up 1.34% in 24 hours
Market capitalization: $1.59 trillion, up 1.1%
24-hour trading volume: $31.38 billion, down 5.6%
Fully diluted valuation: $1.66 trillion
Spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded an eighth consecutive day of net inflows, adding another factor to the market backdrop.
Bitcoin's recent recovery toward the $80,000 level has therefore developed alongside continued ETF demand, analyst forecasts and broader market considerations.
Bernstein Raises Bitcoin Price Forecast to $150,000
Bernstein analysts expect Bitcoin to reach approximately $125,000 by the end of 2026 and have projected a price of $150,000 by mid-2027.
The firm's base-case forecast places the peak of the current cycle at around $300,000 in 2029. Under a faster currency-debasement scenario, Bernstein sees Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 by 2029.
The firm's longer-term projection puts Bitcoin at nearly $1 million by 2033.
Bernstein's updated projections include:
End of 2026: Approximately $125,000
Mid-2027: $150,000
2029 cycle peak, base case: Approximately $300,000
Faster debasement scenario: $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 by 2029
Long-term 2033 target: Nearly $1 million
Bernstein also reduced its price target for Strategy from $450 to $350, citing a revised outlook for the Bitcoin cycle.
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| Source: X Official (Wu Blockchain) |
U.S. Bitcoin Movement Raises Selling Pressure Questions
Separately, a U.S. government movement involving Bitcoin seized from Alameda-linked accounts has drawn attention in the market. Data cited by hokanews indicated that the government had moved the Bitcoin, prompting questions about whether additional holdings could eventually be liquidated.
The transfer itself was described as small, but the movement has renewed focus on the remaining Bitcoin associated with Alameda and the possibility of future government sales.
Bitcoin had recently returned to the $80,000 range following months of unsuccessful attempts to regain that level. The latest government-related movement introduces another factor for traders to monitor as the market assesses the sustainability of the recovery.
A substantially larger government sale could increase selling pressure across the broader cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin Market Faces Separate Technical and Market Drivers
The latest Bitcoin developments reflect two different areas of focus. Quantum-safe initiatives such as QSB are addressing a potential long-term security challenge without requiring immediate changes to Bitcoin's consensus rules.
In the near term, Bitcoin's price remains influenced by market flows, spot ETF demand and expectations surrounding future valuations. Bernstein's revised forecasts provide one set of longer-term projections, while government Bitcoin movements represent a separate potential source of selling pressure.
Neither a quantum-computing attack nor a major government liquidation appears imminent based on the developments described. Both issues, however, remain relevant considerations for Bitcoin as the market moves toward the final months of 2026.
Writer: Marcus RenfieldCrypto Market Analyst & Onchain WriterMarcus Renfield covers cryptocurrency markets with a focus on onchain data, Bitcoin price action, and emerging market narratives. His writing examines how capital flows, network activity, and broader market structure influence short- and medium-term trends.He aims to provide clear, data-informed analysis for readers seeking a deeper understanding of crypto market dynamics.