Rarer Than Gold”: PlanB Says Bitcoin Is Still Wildly Undervalued
PlanB Says Bitcoin Is Massively Undertraded, Citing Scarcity Gap With Gold and Real Estate
Bitcoin analyst PlanB has reignited debate around Bitcoin valuation, arguing that the world’s largest cryptocurrency remains dramatically undertraded despite its extreme scarcity. In recent commentary, PlanB compared Bitcoin’s fixed supply to traditional stores of value such as gold and global real estate, concluding that markets are still mispricing Bitcoin by a wide margin.
According to PlanB, scarcity remains the most important driver of long-term value. When viewed through that lens, Bitcoin stands out as a rare asset that has not yet been fully recognized by global capital markets. He describes the current gap between Bitcoin’s scarcity and its valuation as a “once-in-a-generation” opportunity.
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| Source: Xpost |
Scarcity as the Foundation of Long-Term Value
PlanB’s argument begins with a simple premise. Assets derive long-term value from scarcity. Gold has been prized for thousands of years because it is difficult to extract and its supply grows slowly. Real estate is valuable because land is finite and demand expands alongside population and economic growth.
Bitcoin, however, introduces a new category of scarcity. Its supply is mathematically capped at 21 million coins, enforced by code rather than geology or geography. No matter how demand changes, the supply schedule remains fixed.
Despite this, PlanB argues that Bitcoin is still priced far below assets with weaker scarcity properties. He estimates that Bitcoin is valued 10 to 100 times lower than comparable scarce assets when adjusted for supply constraints. To him, this discrepancy signals that markets have not yet internalized Bitcoin’s long-term scarcity.
The Stock-to-Flow Model and Bitcoin’s Supply Dynamics
To support his view, PlanB relies on his well-known stock-to-flow (S2F) model. The model measures scarcity by comparing the existing stock of an asset to the annual flow of new supply entering the market.
Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow ratio has increased steadily with each halving event, where the issuance of new coins is cut in half roughly every four years. After the 2024 halving, Bitcoin’s scarcity ratio surpassed that of gold by a wide margin.
PlanB notes that Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow ratio is now more than 50 times higher than gold’s and several orders of magnitude higher than real estate, where new supply can always be created through development. Yet Bitcoin’s market capitalization remains far smaller.
At present, Bitcoin’s market cap sits near $1.7 trillion, roughly half the estimated value of global gold reserves. In contrast, the estimated global real estate market is valued around $400 trillion. From PlanB’s perspective, this imbalance highlights how early Bitcoin still is in its monetization cycle.
Historical Fit and Long-Term Cycles
PlanB points to the historical performance of the stock-to-flow model as evidence that scarcity has consistently influenced Bitcoin’s long-term price trends. Using a log-log regression, the model shows a strong historical correlation, with an R² value of approximately 0.995.
While Bitcoin’s price deviated from the model during parts of 2021, PlanB argues that short-term fluctuations do not invalidate long-term supply-driven cycles. According to him, Bitcoin’s history has repeatedly shown periods of overperformance and underperformance, followed by eventual convergence toward scarcity-based valuations.
He believes the effects of the 2024 halving are still unfolding. As issuance declines further, the pressure of limited supply may once again assert itself, particularly if demand continues to grow.
Adoption as the Missing Piece
PlanB acknowledges that scarcity alone does not determine value. Trust and adoption play crucial roles, especially for a relatively young asset like Bitcoin. Gold has thousands of years of history as a store of value, while Bitcoin is just over a decade old.
However, he argues that adoption is accelerating at a pace unseen in previous monetary assets. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, growing institutional participation, and increased regulatory clarity have lowered barriers to entry for large pools of capital.
Macro conditions may also support faster adoption. Declining real yields, rising sovereign debt, and expanding fiat liquidity could strengthen demand for scarce, non-sovereign assets. PlanB believes these forces could compress Bitcoin’s adoption curve, allowing it to mature much faster than gold did historically.
Institutional Access Changes the Equation
One of the most significant differences in the current cycle, according to PlanB, is institutional access. In previous cycles, exposure to Bitcoin was limited to exchanges and specialized custody solutions. Today, traditional investors can gain exposure through regulated investment products.
This structural shift may accelerate price discovery. As more capital gains access to Bitcoin through familiar channels, scarcity dynamics could be reflected more efficiently in market prices.
PlanB suggests that the convergence between Bitcoin’s scarcity and its valuation could occur sooner than many expect. He estimates that the gap could begin closing within the next one to two years if adoption trends continue.
A Turning Point in Bitcoin’s Monetization
PlanB views the current period as a critical transition. Bitcoin has already established itself as a globally recognized asset. It has survived multiple market cycles, regulatory scrutiny, and technological challenges.
At the same time, he argues that Bitcoin is still undervalued relative to assets with comparable or weaker scarcity profiles. This combination of maturity and mispricing is what makes the present moment unique.
From his perspective, Bitcoin sits at the intersection of increasing institutional acceptance and persistent market underestimation. As long as adoption continues to rise, he believes Bitcoin’s price will gradually move closer to what scarcity-based models imply.
Risks and Criticism Remain
Critics of the stock-to-flow model argue that markets are influenced by far more than supply constraints. Demand shocks, regulatory developments, and macroeconomic shifts can all override scarcity narratives in the short term.
PlanB does not dismiss these risks but maintains that scarcity reasserts itself over longer time horizons. He emphasizes that his model is not designed to predict short-term price movements, but to frame Bitcoin’s role as a long-term store of value.
The Bigger Picture
Whether one agrees with PlanB’s conclusions or not, his argument highlights a central question facing investors. Is Bitcoin already fairly valued, or is it still in the early stages of being monetized as a global reserve asset?
As adoption broadens and institutional access expands, markets may be forced to revisit that question. For PlanB, the answer is clear. Bitcoin’s scarcity is unmatched, and its current valuation does not yet reflect that reality.
If scarcity remains a fundamental driver of value, then Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory may still have significant room to run.
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Writer @Ethan
Ethan Collins is a passionate crypto journalist and blockchain enthusiast, always on the hunt for the latest trends shaking up the digital finance world. With a knack for turning complex blockchain developments into engaging, easy-to-understand stories, he keeps readers ahead of the curve in the fast-paced crypto universe. Whether it’s Bitcoin, Ethereum, or emerging altcoins, Ethan dives deep into the markets to uncover insights, rumors, and opportunities that matter to crypto fans everywhere.
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