FOMC Minutes Today: Will Fed Policy Spark Crypto Market Recovery?
Bitcoin and Ethereum Rebound Ahead of Fed FOMC Minutes: Traders Brace for Volatility
The financial markets are holding their breath as the U.S. Federal Reserve prepares to release its FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes today at 2 p.m. ET. Anticipation has been building for days, with UBS and other financial analysts warning that the minutes could reveal a hawkish tone. This potential outcome has stirred intense speculation across equities, bonds, and particularly cryptocurrencies, which have become increasingly sensitive to Federal Reserve policy signals.
Despite the looming uncertainty, the cryptocurrency market is showing unexpected resilience. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have staged a notable recovery in the hours leading up to the Fed's release, signaling that traders are positioning themselves ahead of potentially volatile moves. The outcome of today’s FOMC minutes is expected to have a significant impact on investor sentiment, shaping trading activity and market direction in the coming weeks.
Key Issues on the Fed's Agenda
As Fed Chair Jerome Powell prepares to address the market, analysts and investors are closely monitoring several critical topics expected to be discussed in the FOMC minutes. These include potential changes in bank policies regarding crypto, liquidity management, labor market data, and interest rate expectations.
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| Source: Federal Reserve Offcial Website |
1. Banks Now Allowed to Hold Crypto for Blockchain Fees
One of the most eye-catching developments involves a recent decision by U.S. banking regulators permitting banks to hold cryptocurrency to cover blockchain network fees. This shift could signal a growing acceptance of digital assets in mainstream financial operations. Analysts argue that any commentary from the Fed regarding crypto banking regulations could significantly sway investor sentiment. Positive signals might encourage institutions to engage more actively with cryptocurrencies, while cautious language could reinforce volatility.
2. Liquidity Stress and Potential Monetary Support
Liquidity within the broader financial system remains a point of concern. Reports indicate that the Fed may discuss potential mechanisms for injecting liquidity if needed to maintain market stability. Market participants are closely watching for any indication that the Federal Reserve is willing to adopt more accommodative measures. A dovish tone in the minutes could support risk assets, including crypto, whereas a strict stance could heighten market uncertainty.
3. Rising U.S. Jobless Claims
Recent data shows U.S. initial jobless claims climbing to 232,000 for the week ending October 18, 2025, surpassing economists' expectations of 219,000. This figure points to a cooling labor market and is likely to feature prominently in the Fed’s discussion. Analysts anticipate that the minutes may address:
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Reasons behind the rising jobless claims
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The potential implications for economic growth
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Whether the labor market slowdown affects inflation projections
Any dovish commentary on the job market could provide a boost to risk-on assets, while concern over slowing employment could temper investor optimism.
4. Falling Odds for a December Rate Cut
Financial data from Macro Gekko on X indicates that the probability of a Fed rate cut on December 10 has fallen to 50%, down from 81.7% on October 29 following Powell’s unexpectedly hawkish remarks. This sharp drop reflects the market’s growing uncertainty and underscores the importance of today’s meeting. The FOMC minutes could either restore confidence in a potential rate cut or amplify fears of tighter monetary policy.
Cryptocurrency Market Responds
In response to the mounting anticipation, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have displayed remarkable short-term resilience. Market activity suggests traders are actively recalibrating their positions ahead of the Fed announcement.
Bitcoin Rebounds: From $89,000 to $93,032
Bitcoin’s price, which fell sharply to $89,000 earlier today, quickly rebounded to $93,032, according to CoinMarketCap data. Its 24-hour trading volume surged nearly 40%, indicating a significant return of buying interest. Market analysts suggest that if the FOMC minutes convey a dovish stance, Bitcoin could test the $94,500–$96,000 range. Conversely, a hawkish tone could push the price back toward $91,000–$92,000.
Ethereum Follows Suit
Ethereum has mirrored Bitcoin’s recovery, climbing to above $3,130, with trading volume increasing by approximately 32%. Analysts predict that a supportive Fed narrative could lift ETH toward $3,180–$3,250, whereas a more cautious or hawkish stance may see prices retest the $3,050–$3,080 range.
What Traders Should Watch
Market experts emphasize that the tone and content of the FOMC minutes are likely to have immediate and far-reaching consequences for the cryptocurrency market. Traders and investors are advised to monitor the following closely:
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Liquidity signals: Any indication of easing or support measures could fuel a surge in risk assets.
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Labor market discussion: Insights on jobless claims and employment trends could influence risk appetite.
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Interest rate guidance: Subtle shifts in rate cut probabilities or future policy direction will drive volatility.
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Crypto-specific commentary: Mentions of blockchain fees or cryptocurrency in banking could shape institutional adoption sentiment.
The convergence of these factors makes today’s release a pivotal moment for both professional traders and retail investors, particularly as the crypto market approaches the end-of-year trading cycle.
Analyst Perspectives
Some analysts argue that the recent crypto rebound represents a "pre-Fed positioning" phase, where investors accumulate assets in anticipation of potential policy clarity. Others caution that while short-term gains are possible, volatility is likely to remain high until the Fed's guidance becomes clear.
Institutional Attention Intensifies
With Bitcoin and Ethereum regaining ground, institutional interest in digital assets may strengthen, particularly if the minutes indicate a softer stance on economic risks or potential policy accommodation. Market watchers note that institutional flows can amplify price movements in both directions, reinforcing the need for cautious trading.
Retail Engagement Remains Strong
Retail investors are also contributing to the rebound, as the ease of access to cryptocurrencies and growing awareness of macroeconomic factors encourage active participation. Social media and crypto-focused Telegram channels have reported increased discussion and strategy sharing ahead of the FOMC minutes release.
Conclusion: A Market at the Crossroads
As the Fed prepares to release its FOMC minutes, the cryptocurrency market stands at a critical juncture. Bitcoin and Ethereum have demonstrated resilience, yet the upcoming announcement could dictate market direction in the near term. Traders and investors should prepare for sharp price swings as the industry digests the Fed’s insights on liquidity, labor market conditions, interest rates, and crypto-specific regulatory commentary.
The market’s current recovery shows optimism, but caution remains essential. Depending on the tone of today’s Fed minutes, digital assets may either continue their upward momentum or experience renewed downward pressure. The FOMC minutes are shaping up to be one of the most consequential macro events for crypto markets this year.
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