Bitcoin Set to Rally? JPMorgan Predicts $170K Target After October Sell-Off
JPMorgan Predicts Bitcoin Could Hit $170K After October Futures Sell-Off
In the wake of Bitcoin’s dramatic sell-off in October 2025, Wall Street analysts are closely watching the cryptocurrency’s potential for recovery. JPMorgan Chase, one of the largest financial institutions in the United States, has released an updated analysis suggesting Bitcoin (BTC) may now be undervalued compared to gold, signaling a possible rebound to $170,000 if investors treat it as a digital alternative to traditional safe-haven assets.
Bitcoin’s October Slide: What Happened?
Bitcoin experienced a sharp correction in October, dropping over 20% from a high of $126,000 to around $102,000 by early November. According to JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, this decline was primarily fueled by two major factors: futures market deleveraging and a substantial crypto theft.
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| Source: Walter Bloomberg X |
Futures deleveraging occurs when traders holding large leveraged positions are forced to sell their holdings due to market declines. This forced selling accelerates price drops and can trigger panic among retail investors. Meanwhile, the October breach of $128 million in digital assets added to the downward pressure, further exacerbating the market’s volatility.
Panigirtzoglou noted that the deleveraging wave has largely run its course, returning leverage levels in Bitcoin futures to a more normalized state. This reduction in leveraged exposure, he explained, diminishes the immediate risk of forced liquidations, making the market less prone to extreme swings in the near term.
Bitcoin vs. Gold: Why JPMorgan Believes BTC Is Undervalued
A key takeaway from JPMorgan’s analysis is the comparison between Bitcoin and gold, conducted on a volatility-adjusted basis. This approach measures how much each asset fluctuates relative to its potential as an investment store of value.
According to Panigirtzoglou, Bitcoin currently appears undervalued relative to gold. To attract a comparable level of private investment as gold, BTC would need to increase by approximately two-thirds from its current levels, which translates to a target price of around $170,000. This perspective suggests that long-term investors who see Bitcoin as “digital gold” may find the current market conditions favorable for accumulation.
JPMorgan’s report emphasizes that this undervaluation is not merely theoretical. The firm points to BTC’s declining volatility following October’s sell-off and the normalization of futures leverage as evidence that the cryptocurrency is entering a more predictable phase, at least until new catalysts such as institutional adoption, regulatory shifts, or macroeconomic changes emerge.
Market Stabilization and Reduced Risk
Panigirtzoglou highlighted that as futures leverage returns to typical levels, the Bitcoin market is no longer as susceptible to cascading liquidations. This stabilization is a crucial factor for institutional investors, who often require a degree of predictability before committing large amounts of capital to crypto markets.
“The market’s current condition reduces downside pressure and makes price movements more orderly,” he stated. “We are seeing less erratic behavior driven by forced liquidations, which allows for a more stable near-term outlook for BTC.”
Mixed Reactions From the Crypto Community
Despite JPMorgan’s optimistic outlook, the cryptocurrency community has offered mixed responses. On social media platforms, some traders welcomed the analysis as a sign that institutional confidence in Bitcoin remains strong.
However, others criticized the comparison to gold, arguing that the two assets serve fundamentally different purposes. While gold has a centuries-long track record as a store of value, Bitcoin remains relatively young and highly volatile. Some community members also pointed out that when major financial institutions issue bullish predictions, it can sometimes act as a contrarian indicator, potentially signaling an upcoming market correction.
Additionally, debates continue over whether the current Bitcoin price represents a genuine buying opportunity or merely a temporary pause before further volatility sets in. As of November 7, 2025, BTC trades at approximately $102,029, reflecting the uncertainty that still permeates the market.
The Role of Institutional Investment in Bitcoin’s Price Trajectory
Institutional investment remains a significant factor influencing Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Analysts note that inflows from investment funds, corporations, and ETFs have the potential to drive prices higher, especially as more firms recognize Bitcoin as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty and inflation.
For example, the emergence of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and regulated futures products has expanded access for institutional investors who previously avoided crypto markets due to regulatory or custody concerns. Such developments could accelerate the adoption of Bitcoin as a mainstream asset class.
At the same time, analysts caution that Bitcoin is not immune to broader market trends. Macroeconomic headwinds, including inflationary pressures, rising interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty, could influence BTC’s trajectory in ways that remain difficult to predict.
Technical Indicators Suggest a Potential Rebound
Technical analysis of Bitcoin indicates potential opportunities for a short-term rebound. Models show BTC approaching key support levels around $98,213, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 36.67, suggesting oversold conditions. A sustained recovery above this support zone could see BTC challenge resistance levels between $112,000 and $124,276.
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| SC: CMC |
Should BTC decisively breach the $124,000 threshold, it may open the path toward the $135,000 level, aligning with JPMorgan’s target. Conversely, failure to hold the $98,000–$100,000 range could lead to a deeper correction, with the next support level near $75,000. Analysts also monitor the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, which currently shows negative momentum at -809.04. A bullish crossover near the current price levels could confirm a trend reversal, potentially signaling a multi-week rally.
Investor Takeaways
For investors, JPMorgan’s report offers several actionable insights. First, Bitcoin may present a buying opportunity relative to gold, particularly for long-term holders who view it as digital gold. Second, normalization of futures leverage reduces immediate liquidation risk, potentially stabilizing the market. Third, technical indicators suggest BTC is approaching key support zones, which could indicate a near-term rebound if broader market conditions remain favorable.
At the same time, investors should remain cautious. Mixed market sentiment, ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, and potential regulatory interventions could influence BTC prices in unpredictable ways. As always, a balanced approach combining risk management with strategic exposure to crypto assets is advisable.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s recent price decline has sparked renewed discussion about its valuation relative to gold and its potential as a long-term investment. JPMorgan’s analysis suggests that BTC may currently be undervalued and could rise to $170,000 if investor sentiment aligns with historical volatility-adjusted patterns.
However, market participants remain divided. Some view the dip as an opportunity, while others warn of further volatility. What is clear is that Bitcoin continues to attract scrutiny from both Wall Street and retail investors, demonstrating the growing importance of cryptocurrencies in global financial markets.
As Bitcoin navigates its next chapter, it faces a complex mix of macroeconomic pressures, technical market indicators, and evolving institutional sentiment. Investors and observers alike will be watching closely to see if BTC can realize its potential or if it will encounter new obstacles along the path to mainstream acceptance.
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