Bitcoin Nears Its Final Million: Why the 95% Milestone Signals a New Era of Scarcity
Bitcoin Supply Nears Limit as Network Crosses 95% Mining Milestone
Bitcoin has reached one of the most consequential benchmarks in its 16-year history as the network officially surpassed the 95 percent mined supply threshold. The milestone, reached when Antpool mined block 923,999 containing the 19.95 millionth Bitcoin, is reigniting global debate about long-term scarcity, institutional accumulation, and the decades-long timeline toward the protocol’s fixed 21 million cap.
While the event did not trigger dramatic price swings in the short term, analysts say the implications for future market dynamics are profound. The remaining Bitcoin supply is now entering an era of extremely slow issuance, predictable halvings, and intensifying competition among institutions, miners, and long-term holders for what is left in circulation.
This is a closer look at what the milestone means for the world’s largest cryptocurrency, how much supply is truly available today, and why market specialists believe scarcity will become the dominant narrative in the years ahead.
A Milestone Years in the Making
The Bitcoin protocol has followed the same issuance structure since its launch in 2009, beginning with a block reward of 50 BTC and cutting that amount in half roughly every four years. After the most recent halving in April 2024, miners now earn 3.125 BTC per block, a figure scheduled to drop again to 1.5625 BTC in April 2028.
By passing the 95 percent threshold, Bitcoin is now in the final stretch toward its 21 million hard cap. Less than 1.05 million coins remain to be mined — a supply that will be released at a decelerating pace over more than a century. Analysts generally expect the network to reach 99 percent issuance around 2035, while the very last satoshi may not enter circulation until approximately the year 2140.
What makes this milestone significant is the way it highlights Bitcoin’s absolute scarcity. Unlike traditional monetary systems, where supply can expand based on policy decisions, Bitcoin’s supply curve is mathematically guaranteed and enforced by thousands of nodes worldwide. Every node independently verifies that no more than 21 million coins can ever exist, making Bitcoin one of the rare assets with a fixed terminal supply.
A Shrinking Circulating Supply
Although headlines often focus on how many Bitcoins have been mined, the more important question might be: how many Bitcoins are actually available?
The answer, according to blockchain analysts, shows an even tighter market than the raw mining numbers suggest. Current research estimates that between 3 and 4 million BTC are permanently lost — forgotten passwords, discarded hard drives, and wallets that have not moved for more than a decade. If accurate, this places Bitcoin’s effective supply significantly lower than its mined supply.
Long-term holders have reinforced that scarcity. More than 70 percent of all circulating Bitcoin has remained inactive for at least one year, representing one of the highest levels of holder conviction in the network’s history. This immobility removes a substantial portion of supply from trading circulation.
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| Source: BitcoinTreasuries |
Institutional concentration is also rising. Bitcoin ETF issuers now collectively hold roughly 1.54 million BTC. Corporations, both public and private, own more than 1.4 million BTC. National governments hold an estimated 517,000 BTC combined, according to aggregated disclosures.
Exchanges hold approximately 2.14 million BTC available for immediate trading — the lowest levels recorded in years. Binance remains the largest exchange holder with an estimated 570,000 BTC, while miners collectively hold around 120,000 BTC.
With fewer coins on exchanges and more in long-term or institutional custody, the supply available to retail investors is tightening at a pace faster than the mining curve alone can explain.
Industry Leaders React to the Milestone
Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, was among the first prominent figures to comment publicly on the milestone. Posting on social media, Thorn emphasized that 95 percent of all Bitcoin that will ever exist has now been mined, noting that “the era of extremely slow issuance has fully arrived.”
Thorn highlighted that while mining rewards will continue to shrink, future price direction will increasingly depend on demand rather than supply. With issuance decelerating and halvings reducing miner revenue, market movements are becoming more sensitive to capital flows, investor sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions.
Thorn’s perspective aligns with a growing body of research suggesting that Bitcoin is entering a multi-decade scarcity cycle, where supply trends become predictable but demand remains fluid. In such an environment, analysts argue, the asset behaves more like digital gold and less like a high-velocity trading instrument.
Blockchain intelligence account Whale Insider also published updated data following the milestone, confirming that roughly 1.05 million Bitcoins remain to be mined. Their report added that about 230 Bitcoins are already unspendable due to protocol quirks or lost keys, further underscoring the shrinking accessible supply. Whale Insider emphasized the dramatic slowdown in issuance expected after each halving cycle.
Market Outlook: Supply Slows, Demand Takes the Lead
Bitcoin was trading near USD 94,000 at the time of the milestone, experiencing a modest decline along with broader market weakness. Analysts, however, were quick to point out that such milestones rarely produce immediate price effects because the supply schedule has been publicly known and unchanged for over a decade.
Yet the long-term implications are undeniable. As newly mined coins become scarcer, the market becomes more dependent on investor demand — particularly from institutions — to determine price direction. Bitcoin’s fixed supply combined with rising adoption creates a classic supply-demand squeeze.
Some analysts believe the 95 percent threshold could mark the beginning of a multi-year transition toward a mature, scarcity-driven market structure. Others argue that the milestone underscores Bitcoin’s value proposition during periods of inflation or monetary instability, where fixed-supply assets attract long-term capital.
Institutional behavior will remain a key determinant. ETF inflows, corporate treasury strategies, and geopolitical decisions around Bitcoin reserves may collectively shape the market over the next decade more than mining itself.
Meanwhile, miners face their own challenges. With block rewards shrinking, they are increasingly reliant on transaction fees and operational efficiency. The 2028 halving, which cuts rewards to 1.5625 BTC, is expected to be particularly difficult for small and mid-sized mining operations, potentially accelerating consolidation in the mining industry.
A New Era for Bitcoin
Crossing the 95 percent mined threshold is more than a numerical milestone. It marks the beginning of a new chapter for Bitcoin — one where scarcity is no longer a theoretical concept but a visible and measurable reality.
With the countdown to the final million coins now underway, the market is poised to enter a period defined by slow issuance, rising institutional involvement, and long-term holding behavior. Whether these forces drive Bitcoin toward new price levels or result in prolonged consolidation will depend largely on global economic conditions and investor sentiment.
What remains certain is that Bitcoin’s supply mechanics, long celebrated as a defining feature of the network, are now stepping into the foreground of market conversation. As supply growth slows and demand dynamics evolve, the world’s first cryptocurrency continues to shape the future of digital finance.
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