Crypto Markets Brace as Fed FOMC Minutes Could Trigger Massive Moves After 2 PM ET

Fed FOMC Minutes Release: What to Expect for Crypto After 2 PM ET Today

The wait is nearly over. At 2 PM Eastern Time, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release its minutes from the most recent meeting—a document that could dictate the next major move in both traditional financial markets and the cryptocurrency sector. As Bitcoin and Ethereum prices wobble and the total crypto market capitalization retreats from recent highs, traders around the world are bracing for impact.

The release of the FOMC minutes is one of the most anticipated events of the month. It provides deep insights into how policymakers view inflation, growth, and interest rate trajectories. More importantly, it serves as a critical clue for investors speculating on whether the Federal Reserve will move forward with a rate cut during its October 29 meeting.

Why the FOMC Minutes Matter for Crypto

The FOMC minutes are not just an update—they are a market-moving catalyst. The tone of the discussion, whether dovish or hawkish, has the potential to reshape investor sentiment in minutes. A dovish tone typically signals that the Fed may lower interest rates soon, which can inject liquidity into markets, benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. On the other hand, a hawkish tone may indicate a commitment to higher rates, which tends to suppress speculative investment.

Source: Wise Advice X Account

There are four key factors that traders are watching closely in today’s release:

1. The Federal Reserve’s Tone: The language used will determine whether policymakers are leaning toward further rate cuts or holding steady. A shift in tone could sway rate cut expectations for October.

2. Chair Jerome Powell’s Signals: Any reference to the timeline or future policy direction in the minutes will be dissected for clues.

3. Inflation Outlook: The Fed’s assessment of inflation pressures will guide whether additional monetary tightening or easing is justified.

4. Market Reactions Across Asset Classes: The crypto liquidation heatmap already shows heightened volatility, suggesting traders are positioning for large price swings.

For the digital asset industry, the FOMC minutes often act as a short-term spark that can lead to sharp movements. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other leading tokens frequently experience immediate volatility following such macroeconomic announcements.

Traders Prepare for Volatility: The Liquidation Heatmap

Data from Coinglass indicates that traders have been aggressively de-risking ahead of the report. In the past 24 hours alone, more than $621 million worth of liquidations have taken place across major crypto exchanges. Of that, $489 million were long positions, while $131 million were short positions. The pattern suggests that bullish traders have been caught off guard by recent price corrections.

On shorter time frames, the liquidation figures tell a similar story:

• 1-hour window: $5.6 million liquidated (roughly balanced between longs and shorts)

• 12-hour window: $145 million liquidated (mostly long positions)

Some of the top assets facing liquidation pressure include Dogecoin ($1.1 million), COAI ($973,000), Ethereum ($412,000), and Binance Coin ($362,000).

These figures illustrate the heightened sensitivity of the crypto market ahead of the Fed’s policy signals. Traders are clearing positions in anticipation of either a relief rally or another sharp downturn depending on the tone of the minutes.

Rate Cut Expectations: Markets Are Fully Priced In

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders have already priced in a strong likelihood of an October rate cut. As of Thursday morning, the probability stands at 94.6% that the Federal Reserve will reduce rates to the 3.75%–4.00% range, down from the current 4.00%–4.25%. Only 5.4% of market participants expect no change, while none expect a rate hike.

This dovish expectation has fueled recent inflows into crypto-linked exchange-traded funds (ETFs), particularly those tracking Bitcoin and Ethereum. Investors are positioning for a potential easing cycle, betting that lower borrowing costs will push more liquidity into risk assets. However, if the FOMC minutes deliver a more cautious message, that optimism could fade quickly.

Three Market Scenarios That Could Unfold

Once the FOMC minutes are released, three distinct market outcomes are possible, each with varying implications for the crypto market.

1. Positive Confirmation

If the minutes confirm dovish expectations—indicating that the Fed is preparing for a rate cut later this month—crypto markets could see a strong rebound. Bitcoin and Ethereum, both of which have struggled to maintain upward momentum in recent days, might recover sharply. The overall crypto market capitalization could surge past $4.2 trillion, restoring bullish sentiment.

Historically, dovish FOMC minutes have triggered substantial rallies within 24 to 48 hours, especially when combined with heavy short liquidations.

2. Neutral Outlook

If the Fed maintains a balanced tone—acknowledging economic risks while signaling patience—markets might react with brief volatility before settling into consolidation. Traders could unwind leveraged positions, leading to short-term dips followed by a stabilization phase. In this case, both crypto and equity markets might hover near current levels until the October 29 policy meeting provides clearer direction.

3. Hawkish Surprise

A hawkish tone would be the biggest shock to markets. If the minutes reveal a concern that inflation remains stubbornly high, or that policymakers see little urgency to cut rates, risk assets could experience an immediate selloff. Bitcoin’s “fear and greed” index, which currently sits around 60% (indicating moderate greed), could swing rapidly toward fear. Such a shift could trigger another round of long liquidations, echoing the pre-FOMC volatility witnessed earlier in the week.

Global Implications Beyond Crypto

While the crypto sector is often the most sensitive to macroeconomic news, the FOMC minutes will also influence global equity, bond, and foreign exchange markets. A dovish interpretation could drive the U.S. dollar lower while pushing gold and Treasury prices higher. Conversely, a hawkish surprise could lift the dollar and pressure emerging market currencies.

For institutional investors managing diversified portfolios, the release represents a potential pivot point in risk sentiment heading into the final quarter of 2025.

Expert Insights: Short-Term Noise, Long-Term Opportunity

Analysts caution against overreacting to the initial market response. Historically, the first few hours after FOMC minutes are released tend to produce erratic price swings as algorithms and short-term traders react to headlines. The more reliable trend often emerges after 24 to 48 hours, once the full content of the report has been analyzed.

“Volatility will spike immediately, but the real signal comes after the dust settles,” said a senior crypto market strategist at CoinMetrics. “The next 48 hours will determine whether this is a temporary correction or the beginning of a new trend.”

In other words, patience could be the key advantage for both traders and long-term investors.

Final Take: All Eyes on 2 PM ET

The Fed FOMC minutes release is not merely a routine policy document—it’s a defining moment that can reset global market momentum. Whether it sparks a rally or deepens the current correction, its impact will reverberate across every major financial sector.

Crypto investors, in particular, are watching closely. Bitcoin and Ethereum have already shown resilience amid macro uncertainty, but sustained bullish momentum may depend on whether the Fed confirms the market’s dovish hopes. With liquidity tightening and volatility on the rise, the next 24 hours could set the tone for the rest of October.

As markets await the 2 PM ET release, one thing is certain: whatever the Fed signals today, the ripple effects will be felt across the global digital asset landscape.

Writer @Ellena

Erlin is an experienced crypto writer who loves to explore the intersection of blockchain technology and financial markets. She regularly provides insights into the latest trends and innovations in the digital currency space.

 

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