Bitcoin Lags Nasdaq by 30% – Analysts Warn of Imminent Surge

 

Bitcoin Trades 30% Below Nasdaq-Implied Fair Value Amid Market Rotation and Strong Liquidity

Bitcoin is currently trading at a notable discount relative to its implied fair value based on the Nasdaq 100, signaling a potential opportunity for investors as the digital asset navigates the final months of 2025. According to recent data from ecoinometrics, Bitcoin’s spot price hovers near $110,000, nearly 30% below its Nasdaq-implied fair value of approximately $156,000. The last time such a significant gap occurred was in 2023, just ahead of a major rally, suggesting that a similar market adjustment may be on the horizon.

Ecoinometrics analysts note that unless the current bull market has already concluded, this disparity is likely to narrow as Bitcoin catches up to equities. The cryptocurrency’s price trajectory continues to be strongly correlated with U.S. stock indexes, particularly the Nasdaq 100, reflecting its role as a higher-beta asset that reacts to broader market trends. Bloomberg data highlights that the current deviation is more a recalibration than a breakdown, indicating potential upside once risk appetite returns to the market.

Stablecoin Liquidity Points to Potential Buying Pressure

On-chain metrics further underscore Bitcoin’s readiness for potential upward momentum. Maartunn, a well-known on-chain analyst, recently highlighted that Bitcoin’s Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) Stochastic RSI has entered oversold territory. This technical setup indicates that the stablecoin supply relative to Bitcoin’s market capitalization is high, meaning that significant liquidity is waiting on the sidelines, ready to be deployed.

“The liquidity is loaded,” Maartunn explained, noting that the elevated stablecoin supply represents substantial buying power for market participants. Historically, oversold conditions in the SSR Stochastic RSI have preceded significant price recoveries, particularly when paired with broader market corrections.

Market Reset Clears Excessive Leverage

October’s flash crash, which erased over $12 billion in open interest across Bitcoin derivatives markets, has left a profound impact on market structure. Futures open interest fell from $47 billion to $35 billion as leverage unwound rapidly, creating one of the sharpest deleveraging events in recent crypto history. Analysts argue that this reset is constructive, removing excessive speculation and positioning the market for organic, spot-driven growth.

Tom Lee of Fundstrat and BitMine described the deleveraging as a “huge event” that, while temporarily weighing on sentiment, ultimately strengthens Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals. With open interest now near historic lows and stablecoin liquidity high, Lee and other analysts suggest that the market is well-positioned for a renewed rally into the end of the year.

Additionally, Glassnode data indicates that options open interest has now surpassed futures by roughly $40 billion. Analysts interpret this as a signal that the market is maturing, with participants increasingly favoring defined-risk strategies over speculative leverage. This structural shift suggests a more resilient market environment that could support sustained Bitcoin price appreciation in the coming months.

Gold’s Weakening Momentum Fuels Bitcoin Interest

The traditional safe-haven asset gold, which saw a record-breaking rally earlier this year, has recently lost momentum. Bloomberg and Reuters report that institutional investors are reassessing gold’s near-term prospects, prompting some to rotate capital into higher-beta assets such as Bitcoin.

Investor Anthony Pompliano, a well-known crypto advocate, describes this as a “great rotation” from gold to Bitcoin. Historical performance data shows that Bitcoin often trails gold by approximately 100 days during cyclical rotations. With gold cooling off and Bitcoin trading at a significant discount to its Nasdaq-implied fair value, the market may witness a wave of capital seeking higher potential returns in digital assets.

Technical and Market Conditions Favor Potential Upside

Bitcoin’s current setup combines several historically bullish signals:

1. Valuation Gap Relative to Nasdaq: Bitcoin is trading approximately 30% below its Nasdaq-implied fair value, a condition that has historically coincided with accumulation phases rather than distribution tops.

2. Strong Stablecoin Liquidity: Oversold SSR Stochastic RSI suggests that buyers have ample capital ready to deploy.

3. Cleared Derivatives Leverage: The recent deleveraging event has removed excess speculative risk, paving the way for more stable price action.

4. Institutional Inflows: Despite recent market volatility, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains strong, evidenced by derivatives and options positioning.

Taken together, these factors create a favorable environment for Bitcoin to narrow its valuation gap and potentially approach its fair value before year-end. Analysts emphasize that while short-term volatility remains a possibility, the structural conditions support a potential rebound.

Implications for Investors and Traders

For institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals, the current market dynamics present a compelling opportunity. Low leverage, high liquidity, and favorable technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin’s downside risk may be limited relative to its potential upside. Traders closely monitoring derivatives positioning and stablecoin liquidity may find strategic entry points during periods of short-term weakness.

Retail investors may also benefit from the current market setup. The discount relative to Nasdaq-implied fair value, coupled with an oversold SSR, implies that accumulation now could yield substantial gains if Bitcoin closes the valuation gap. However, analysts caution that macroeconomic factors, regulatory developments, and broader market sentiment will continue to play critical roles in determining price direction.

Looking Ahead: Year-End Outlook

Bitcoin’s path to reclaiming fair value appears increasingly plausible if macro sentiment stabilizes and capital rotation from traditional assets like gold continues. Historically, similar conditions have preceded significant price rallies, reinforcing the notion that the cryptocurrency remains deeply intertwined with broader financial markets.

While the exact timing of a potential rebound is uncertain, the convergence of liquidity, cleared leverage, and institutional interest suggests that Bitcoin could witness accelerated growth over the next several weeks. Investors who closely track technical indicators and macro rotations may be positioned to benefit from the approaching market inflection point.

As Bitcoin continues to navigate the intersection of traditional equity markets and emerging crypto adoption, its performance relative to the Nasdaq and other benchmark indices will remain a critical measure for market participants. The current 30% discount underscores the opportunity—and the risk—that defines one of the most closely watched assets in 2025.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s current trading environment offers a unique window for accumulation and strategic positioning. Trading at nearly 30% below its Nasdaq-implied fair value, supported by robust stablecoin liquidity and a cleared derivatives market, the cryptocurrency is poised for a potential rebound. Investors should remain mindful of macroeconomic conditions, but historical trends and technical indicators point toward a favorable setup for Bitcoin to close its valuation gap and potentially reclaim its implied market value by the end of 2025.

If realized, this could mark another significant milestone in Bitcoin’s ongoing integration with traditional financial markets and institutional investment strategies, further solidifying its status as a mainstream asset.

Source

Writer @Ellena

Erlin is an experienced crypto writer who loves to explore the intersection of blockchain technology and financial markets. She regularly provides insights into the latest trends and innovations in the digital currency space.

 

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