Aster Stage 3 Dawn Launches: Will Token Surge or Crash Next?

Aster Airdrop Stage 2 Concludes as Stage 3 “Dawn” Launches: What Traders Should Watch

The cryptocurrency world is closely watching Aster as its massive airdrop program transitions from Stage 2 to the newly launched Stage 3 “Dawn.” Following the conclusion of Stage 2 on October 5, 2025, market participants are now anticipating the October 14 claim date for airdropped tokens—a moment that could significantly influence the token’s price trajectory. The combination of unlocked liquidity and Stage 3’s new mechanisms presents both opportunity and risk, making the coming weeks a potentially pivotal period for Aster traders and investors.

Stage 2 Airdrop Concludes: Claim Period Begins October 14

Stage 2, also known as the Genesis phase, officially ended at 23:59 UTC on October 5. Participants in this phase are set to access their rewards via a claim system that begins October 14. Notably, the tokens have no locking period, meaning users can claim and immediately utilize their rewards. While this flexibility incentivizes participation, it could also inject a significant amount of liquidity into the market—potentially triggering price volatility. Analysts estimate that the total unlock could involve up to $600 million worth of tokens, raising questions about market absorption and price stability.

Source: X

The absence of a locking period is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it empowers users to actively trade or invest their airdropped tokens. On the other hand, it introduces the risk of short-term sell-offs, particularly from participants looking to capitalize on immediate gains. Crypto communities are already debating whether Aster’s liquidity can withstand such volume without significant downward pressure.

Stage 3 “Dawn” Launches: New Rules, Fairer Scoring

Immediately following the conclusion of Stage 2, Aster’s Stage 3, dubbed “Dawn,” officially commenced. This stage will run for five weeks, ending on November 9, 2025, at 23:59 UTC. Stage 3 introduces a multi-dimensional scoring system designed to reward genuine trading activity rather than short-term farming. The goal is to foster long-term engagement and create a more sustainable ecosystem.

Source: X

Key upgrades in Stage 3 include:

• Rewarding Spot Trading: Participants now earn Rh points for actual spot trading activity.

• Symbol-Specific Multipliers: Certain tokens now carry higher reward multipliers to incentivize strategic trading.

• Multi-Dimensional Scoring: Scores are calculated based on volume, profit and loss, asset holdings (such as asBNB and USDF), and referrals.

• Stackable Team Boosts: Unlike Stage 2, team boosts now accumulate over the full phase rather than resetting weekly.

• Referral Caps and Premium Unlocks: Referral bonuses are capped at 10%, with additional incentives unlocked based on performance metrics.

Stage 3 emphasizes sustained participation rather than aggressive short-term strategies. The scoring mechanics are intended to encourage a more active and engaged user base while minimizing manipulation or gaming of the system.

Aster Price Analysis: Stage 3 Could Be a Turning Point

At the time of writing, Aster is trading at $1.837, down from an intraday high of $2.40 on October 4. The token’s market capitalization stands at $3.06 billion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $1.25 billion. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) over 14 days sits at 45.27, suggesting moderate bearish momentum.

Analysts highlight key levels to watch:

• Bullish Case: A break above the $2.00 mark could propel the token toward short-term targets of $2.20 and medium-term levels of $2.50–$2.70, driven by Stage 3 activity and renewed demand from new participants. Sustained upward momentum could even push prices higher if adoption and exchange liquidity improve.

• Bearish Case: Failure to hold support at $1.80 may trigger a drop toward $1.55 or lower, particularly once the Stage 2 airdrop claims are unlocked. Market sentiment could shift quickly if a large portion of tokens are sold immediately upon release.

Further complicating the picture, DeFi analytics platform DeFiLlama recently delisted Aster’s perpetual trading volume due to suspiciously close similarities with Binance volumes. This action has reignited debate around liquidity authenticity, wash trading, and the reliability of on-chain volume metrics. Investors and traders are now monitoring whether Stage 3 mechanisms can stimulate genuine trading activity to provide a stable foundation for token valuation.

Potential Market Scenarios

The coming weeks present several possible outcomes for Aster:

1. Successful Stage 3 Implementation: If Stage 3 effectively encourages real trading and sustained engagement, the token could stabilize above $2.00. A sustained breakout may establish a base for a medium-term rally targeting $5–$7 by the end of 2025, assuming continued adoption and expansion across exchanges.

2. Immediate Sell-Off: If Stage 2 airdrop claims flood the market and trading activity fails to pick up, Aster could face consolidation or correction, potentially dipping below $1.55 before stabilizing.

3. Market Reactions to External Events: The token’s trajectory may also be influenced by broader market conditions, including crypto market trends, regulatory news, and developments on competing platforms.

Investors and traders are advised to monitor both technical levels and on-chain activity closely. Support at $1.80 and breakout above $2.00 will be critical indicators of the next price trend.

Conclusion

Aster’s transition from Stage 2 to Stage 3 marks a critical juncture for the token. The ability to manage a massive token claim while sustaining active trading will determine whether Aster can maintain momentum or face a correction. Stage 3’s new scoring mechanisms emphasize long-term engagement and genuine trading activity, potentially creating a more resilient ecosystem.

For traders and investors, the immediate focus is on the October 14 claim date, the $1.80 support level, and the $2.00 breakout point. How the market absorbs unlocked tokens and responds to Stage 3 incentives will likely shape Aster’s short- and medium-term trajectory. Those closely watching the token should prepare for heightened volatility and stay informed on both on-chain metrics and market sentiment.

Writer @Ellena

Erlin is an experienced crypto writer who loves to explore the intersection of blockchain technology and financial markets. She regularly provides insights into the latest trends and innovations in the digital currency space.

 

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