Bitcoin Faces Critical 7th Week: Is a Major 2025 Correction Coming?

Bitcoin Price Stalls Below $120,000 as Market Awaits Next Major Move

Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency, enters a pivotal week as it trades just shy of the $120,000 threshold. Analysts suggest that the market may be nearing the end of its latest “price discovery uptrend,” a phase in which new all-time highs typically emerge before a significant correction sets in.

On Sunday, well-known trader and market analyst Rekt Capital published new findings indicating that Bitcoin’s current cycle could be running out of time to secure new record highs. According to historical trends, the seventh week of Bitcoin’s post-halving uptrend often marks the turning point where upward momentum cools and a corrective phase begins.

A Familiar Pattern in Bitcoin’s Halving Cycles

Bitcoin’s trajectory has historically followed repeating patterns after each halving event. The halving, which occurs approximately every four years, reduces block rewards for miners and has traditionally triggered a bull market marked by rapid price increases followed by sharp corrections.

Rekt Capital explained that after the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin entered its second major “price discovery uptrend.” During such uptrends, Bitcoin breaks through previous all-time highs, often surprising investors with how far it can climb.

Source: Rekt Capital/X

“Historically, Bitcoin Price Discovery Uptrend 1 tends to end between Week 6 and Week 8 of its uptrend,” the analyst wrote. “Whereas in Price Discovery Uptrend 2, Bitcoin tends to end its uptrend between Week 5 and Week 7. Week 7 of Price Discovery Uptrend 2 begins tomorrow.”

That timeline suggests Bitcoin may be approaching the natural end of this current rally, especially given that the cryptocurrency hit a record $124,500 earlier this year but has since struggled to break higher.

The Risk of a Correction

If Bitcoin follows the script of previous cycles, its $124,500 high may stand as the top of this particular phase. A chart shared by Rekt Capital earlier this year projected that the second post-halving uptrend could peak just below $160,000. Yet the window for such a breakout is narrowing, and history suggests that corrections often arrive sooner than many investors anticipate.

In fact, past “price discovery corrections” have tended to fall within weeks 6 to 8 of the cycle. Data shows that in 2013 and 2025, corrections began in week 7, while in 2017, the market corrected in week 8, and in 2021, the pullback came earlier in week 6.

The last significant correction in 2025 sent Bitcoin from near $110,000 down to under $75,000 — a staggering 30% decline. Such pullbacks are not unusual within Bitcoin’s halving-driven cycles and often serve to reset the market before another leg higher.

Analysts Split on Bitcoin’s Short-Term Future

While Rekt Capital emphasizes the likelihood of a correction, other prominent traders see the potential for an eventual recovery and new highs before year’s end.

Daan Crypto Trades, another closely watched analyst, observed that Bitcoin has yet to post back-to-back positive months in August and September during this bull cycle. According to him, the absence of a strong September could actually set the stage for a more powerful rally later in the year.

“We tend to see a quick flush followed by an explosive Q4 in most of the bull market years,” Daan wrote in a recent market update. “Any larger flushes in the next one to two months would be welcomed and could very well be the last larger dip for the Q4 end-of-the-year rally which we see so often. If not, that’s fine too, but I think it would pull forward a bigger high timeframe top as well.”

Data from market resource CoinGlass appears to support this view. In August, Bitcoin gained 2.1%, slightly outperforming the historical monthly average of 1.8%. However, September has historically been one of Bitcoin’s weakest months, averaging a 3.8% drawdown.

Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior

Investor sentiment has cooled slightly as Bitcoin struggles to hold above $120,000, yet long-term optimism remains strong. Institutional interest continues to grow, particularly after the approval of several Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) earlier in the year, which brought fresh inflows of capital into the market.

Retail investors, meanwhile, are carefully watching whether Bitcoin can reclaim upward momentum before entering a prolonged correction. For many, the $120,000 level has become a psychological battleground: a breakthrough could rekindle bullish sentiment, while failure to sustain gains may accelerate profit-taking and selling pressure.

The crypto derivatives market has also become a focal point. Rising open interest in Bitcoin futures suggests that traders are positioning for volatility, with some betting on short-term downside while others hedge against a possible breakout. This dynamic is expected to heighten volatility in the weeks ahead.

A Bigger Picture: What Q4 Could Bring

Despite the looming threat of correction, many analysts remain convinced that the bigger story lies in what comes after. Historically, Bitcoin has saved its most dramatic moves for the fourth quarter of the year following a halving.

In both 2013 and 2017, Bitcoin experienced explosive rallies in Q4, pushing prices to cycle tops that far exceeded prior expectations. If the current cycle echoes that history, then a correction in the near term may simply be a prelude to a major bull run into late 2025.

Source: CoinGlass

Investors should also note that macroeconomic factors could play a role in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory. With central banks still grappling with inflation, shifting interest rates, and global geopolitical uncertainties, Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge and alternative asset could strengthen.

What Comes Next for Bitcoin?

For now, Bitcoin remains in a delicate position. Its ability to maintain support near $117,000 and build momentum toward $120,000 will likely determine whether the market sees one more push higher before the expected correction.

The next few weeks could therefore prove decisive. If history is any guide, volatility will increase, corrections will test investor conviction, and patient holders may once again be rewarded if Q4 delivers the kind of explosive gains that have defined Bitcoin’s most memorable bull markets.

As Rekt Capital noted, Bitcoin is entering the seventh week of its second post-halving uptrend — a moment that has historically marked the beginning of a new phase. Whether that means a short-term setback or the foundation of a longer-term rally remains to be seen.

Writer @Erlin

Erlin is an experienced crypto writer who loves to explore the intersection of blockchain technology and financial markets. She regularly provides insights into the latest trends and innovations in the digital currency space.

 

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