1 Billion Token Unlock Shakes the Market, Analysts Still Confident XRP is Heading to $11

XRP Price Slips Despite Ripple’s Legal Win, but Analysts Predict Major Upside Potential

XRP, the cryptocurrency closely associated with Ripple Labs, has experienced a sharp decline of more than 4% over the past 24 hours, dipping into negative territory despite Ripple’s recent legal victory over the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The drop has puzzled many investors who expected the court win to buoy prices. However, market analysts, including well-known crypto strategist Ali Martinez, believe the broader trend still points toward a significant move higher in the months ahead.

Bullish Breakout Pattern Still in Play

According to Martinez, XRP’s recent price action on the weekly chart has broken out of what technical traders call a “bullish flag” formation. This chart pattern often signals the continuation of a strong upward trend following a period of consolidation. Martinez argues that the breakout, if confirmed by sustained price movement, could pave the way for XRP to rally as high as $11 in the coming months—a level that would represent one of the largest percentage gains in the coin’s history.

“The bullish flag is a powerful continuation pattern,” Martinez explained in a recent social media update. “If XRP can maintain this breakout and gather momentum, the upside potential is substantial.”

Such projections, while ambitious, are not without precedent. XRP has seen explosive rallies in the past, particularly during periods of heightened investor optimism and favorable news flow. However, the path to $11 will likely face multiple challenges, both technical and fundamental.

The Token Unlock That Rattled the Market

One of the primary catalysts for the recent drop in XRP’s price appears to be Ripple’s unexpected unlocking of 1 billion XRP tokens—valued at roughly $3.28 billion—on August 9. This move took place in three rapid transactions, raising eyebrows among traders because it deviated from Ripple’s usual monthly schedule for token releases.

Ripple’s Chief Technology Officer, David Schwartz, addressed the concerns by clarifying that the unlock was part of a routine process and not an indication of imminent large-scale selling. Still, the sudden increase in circulating supply, visible on-chain, was enough to trigger market jitters and spur selling pressure.

In cryptocurrency markets, perceived changes in supply can have an outsized psychological impact, even if the actual distribution of tokens happens gradually. For some traders, the sheer scale of the unlock was reason enough to take profits or reduce exposure in the short term.

Technical Picture: Resistance and Support Levels

From a technical standpoint, XRP’s decline was not entirely unexpected. Analysts point out that the cryptocurrency recently hit strong resistance in the $3.35–$3.40 range, an area that coincided with what’s known as a “fair value gap” left behind in late July after a wave of bearish price action.

These gaps often act as price magnets in technical analysis, drawing the market toward them before a reversal occurs. Once XRP reached this resistance zone and filled the gap, selling pressure intensified, leading to a rejection and subsequent price drop.

Source: X

Following that rejection, XRP lost upward momentum and began drifting toward a lower support zone between $3.15 and $3.08. This range is significant because it contains both a cluster of prior trading activity and unfilled imbalances that could once again attract price action.

Should the current downtrend persist, analysts expect XRP to test even deeper support around $3.10 in the coming sessions. A sustained break below that level could shift the short-term market structure decisively bearish.

Macro Factors and Investor Sentiment

While technical factors have played a role in XRP’s recent decline, broader market sentiment is also influencing price behavior. The coming week features several high-impact economic and geopolitical events that could ripple through global financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.

On Tuesday, the U.S. is scheduled to release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data—an indicator closely watched by the Federal Reserve in setting monetary policy. Higher-than-expected inflation numbers could reignite fears of interest rate hikes, a scenario that typically weighs on risk assets such as stocks and digital currencies.

Meanwhile, geopolitical headlines are also in focus, particularly renewed discussions about potential peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. While such developments could reduce certain macroeconomic risks, they also introduce uncertainty, prompting some investors to adopt a “wait-and-see” approach and reduce their exposure ahead of the news.

Short-Term Outlook: Bearish Bias

In the immediate term, most technical analysts expect XRP to remain under modest selling pressure. The path of least resistance appears to be a test of support in the $3.10 area, with potential intraday bounces along the way.

That said, short-term weakness does not necessarily invalidate the longer-term bullish case outlined by Martinez and others. If XRP can stabilize above key support levels and avoid deeper breakdowns, the stage could be set for another push higher later in the quarter.

Traders are advised to watch for signs of accumulation—where buying volume quietly builds during periods of low volatility—as a potential signal that larger players are positioning for the next leg up.

Long-Term Potential: The $11 Projection

Martinez’s $11 target is based largely on the measured move technique, which projects the potential size of a breakout by adding the height of the prior rally to the breakout point. While this kind of technical projection can be a useful guide, it is not a guarantee, and reaching such a level would require both strong market sentiment and broader adoption of XRP’s underlying technology.

Ripple’s legal victory against the SEC has removed one of the largest overhangs on the asset, clarifying that XRP is not a security in certain contexts. This could encourage more institutional interest in the token, potentially providing the demand necessary to sustain a large rally.

Additionally, Ripple continues to expand its global payment network and partnerships, factors that could underpin long-term value if adoption trends accelerate.

The Bottom Line

XRP’s recent 4% decline has frustrated some investors, especially coming so soon after what was perceived as a landmark legal win. Yet, the drop also highlights the inherently volatile nature of cryptocurrency markets, where even bullish news can be overshadowed by supply events, technical resistance, and macroeconomic uncertainty.

For now, the battle lines are drawn between short-term sellers targeting support near $3.10 and long-term bulls who believe the current consolidation is merely a pause before a much larger move to the upside. Whether XRP eventually makes a run toward Martinez’s ambitious $11 target will depend on its ability to hold key support zones, weather macroeconomic headwinds, and sustain momentum through technical breakouts.

As always in crypto, the coming weeks could prove decisive—both for short-term traders looking to capitalize on volatility and for long-term investors betting on XRP’s place in the future of global finance.

Writer @Erlin

Erlin is an experienced crypto writer who loves to explore the intersection of blockchain technology and financial markets. She regularly provides insights into the latest trends and innovations in the digital currency space.

 

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