ETH Surges Again, Yet Traders Stay Cautious: Will $4.9K Unlock the Bull Run?

Ethereum's Ascent to $4.9K: Why the Market Is Still Not in Full Profit Mode

Ethereum is once again making waves in the cryptocurrency world. As it inches closer to its March 2024 high of $3,980, the rally is reigniting enthusiasm across the digital asset sector. Yet, despite this sharp price rebound, many Ethereum holders are not seeing a corresponding increase in profit. Analysts believe this discrepancy could be the key to a further surge that could potentially push ETH to a new target: $4,900.

Ethereum Price Echoes March Levels, But With Lower Profits

At the time of writing, Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $3,861, nearly matching its previous March 2024 peak. However, this rally is different. Data from blockchain analytics platform Glassnode indicates that despite the higher price levels, the market's unrealized profits remain significantly lower than before.

Source: X

In March, Ethereum reached what is known as the "+2 standard deviation" (or +2σ) level on Glassnode's Relative Unrealized Profit metric, a critical signal suggesting overbought conditions and heightened market euphoria. Currently, Ethereum is only registering around +1σ on the same metric, pointing to more modest gains for holders.

This lack of overheated profit levels is being interpreted as a sign that the rally still has room to grow. The crypto market, for now, seems restrained, with many investors still sitting on unrealized gains. In short, there appears to be additional room for Ethereum to climb before reaching a psychologically or technically "exhausted" level.

Why $4.9K Could Be the Real Target

So why is $4.9K emerging as the new focal point for Ethereum traders? It goes beyond simple price speculation. Analysts argue that $4,900 is the level at which the market could again reach the +2σ deviation zone, suggesting widespread profit-taking pressure and a potential turning point for investor sentiment.

This level serves not just as a price milestone but as a behavioral trigger, where the majority of investors could begin to feel their positions are safely in the green. According to seasoned analysts, this is when "smart money" starts exiting positions, causing ripple effects throughout the market.

"We’re not yet seeing the kind of euphoric sentiment that signals a market top," said Ted Pillows, a senior market strategist at OKX. "That’s actually a good thing. It tells us this rally has more gas in the tank."

On-Chain Metrics Reveal Bullish Potential

The absence of widespread profit-taking suggests that Ethereum has not yet reached an overheated phase. In fact, on-chain metrics suggest the opposite.

Glassnode data from March showed a clear peak at +2σ when ETH hit $3,980. Now, with Ethereum once again approaching that level but with less overall market profit, the data points to an ongoing accumulation phase rather than a distribution one. That, in crypto market language, is a bullish sign.

"It's a classic setup: Price is rising, but profit metrics are lagging," said Pillows. "When these two eventually converge, it could mean a dramatic push toward $4,900."

Technical Analysis: Ethereum Price Momentum Still Positive

Looking at Ethereum's price action, the cryptocurrency has more than doubled from its recent lows under $2,000, climbing sharply to test the $3,800 zone once again. TradingView charts suggest a strong, albeit slowing, upward momentum.

MACD Indicator

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains bullish, though the histogram has begun to flatten, indicating slowing momentum. A bearish crossover could lead to short-term consolidation if buying volume fails to pick up.

RSI Insights

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 80.58, placing it firmly in overbought territory. While this doesn’t guarantee an immediate pullback, it does suggest caution. Overbought RSI levels often lead to short-term pauses or minor corrections before the next leg higher.

Trader Sentiment: Watching for Confirmation at $4,000

Ethereum's current resistance sits between $3,760 and $3,820. A breakout above $4,000 would not only capture headlines but also act as a key technical validation.

"Crossing $4,000 and holding it for several trading sessions would confirm the market’s willingness to support a move toward $4,900," said Pillows.

The psychological milestone of $4,000 is significant. Not only does it mark an all-time high territory revisited, but it also represents a potential springboard toward new highs if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable.

Ethereum Price Prediction 2025: Eyes on the Bigger Picture

As Ethereum prepares for its next major protocol upgrade and continues to dominate decentralized finance and NFT ecosystems, long-term projections remain highly optimistic. Market analysts are keeping a close eye on both regulatory developments and institutional interest as additional drivers.

Ethereum’s future, according to most analysts, is not just about price speculation but about utility. With the Ethereum 2.0 transition nearing completion and gas fees reduced through scaling solutions, the network continues to attract developers and users alike.

Source: X

"The narrative isn’t just about trading anymore," said Maria Long, a digital asset analyst at CryptoSlate. "Ethereum has evolved into a platform for real-world applications, and that’s supporting its price in a more sustainable way."

What To Watch Next: Key Levels and Market Sentiment

In the short term, traders will be watching to see if ETH can decisively breach the $4,000 barrier. Should that occur, technical projections suggest the following price ranges:

• Short-Term Support: $3,760 – $3,820

• Immediate Target Range: $4,000 – $4,100

• Mid-Term Target: $4,700 – $4,900

• Breakout Trigger: A confirmed move back to +2σ on Glassnode's Relative Unrealized Profit metric

Final Thoughts: Ethereum Still Has Room to Run

Ethereum's recent rally may not be triggering euphoria, but that’s exactly why many analysts believe it's far from over. The subdued profit levels suggest that most of the market is still accumulating rather than distributing. Coupled with strong technical setups and bullish on-chain metrics, Ethereum could very well be gearing up for a breakout toward $4,900.

As always, investors are reminded to conduct their own research and remain cautious during volatile periods. Cryptocurrency markets can be unpredictable, and while data may suggest potential, it is no guarantee of future performance.

Writer @Ellena

Ellena is an experienced crypto writer who loves to explore the intersection of blockchain technology and financial markets. She regularly provides insights into the latest trends and innovations in the digital currency space.

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