How XRP Price Will React to Ripple SEC Case as Experts Hint Delay

Ripple vs. SEC: Is the End Finally in Sight, and Could XRP Price Hit $5?

After nearly four years of legal battles, the case between Ripple Labs and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could be approaching its final chapter. Investors, legal experts, and crypto enthusiasts alike are watching closely as both parties submitted a joint motion that, if approved, would resolve one of the most high-profile regulatory disputes in the digital asset space. The outcome of this case is expected to have far-reaching consequences not just for Ripple’s XRP token but for the broader cryptocurrency industry in the United States.

Source: X

A Legal Saga Nearing Its Climax

The Ripple-SEC lawsuit, which began in December 2020, centers around the SEC’s allegation that Ripple conducted an unregistered securities offering through the sale of XRP. Ripple has maintained that XRP is not a security, arguing that the token functions as a digital currency rather than an investment contract.

The latest development in this prolonged legal battle came as Ripple and the SEC jointly requested the court to modify Judge Analisa Torres’ earlier ruling. The request seeks to reduce Ripple’s penalty from $125 million to $50 million and to lift the ban on institutional XRP sales. The hope is that this adjustment would bring the legal dispute to a close, putting an end to ongoing appeals from both sides.

However, despite the optimism in crypto circles, legal experts warn that the resolution may not be as straightforward as it appears.

Source: X

Why Legal Experts Are Divided on Today’s Outcome

Bill Morgan, an Australian lawyer and well-known commentator on crypto legal matters, has expressed caution regarding today’s proceedings. According to Morgan, while the joint motion reflects progress, it faces a significant legal hurdle: the standard required for modifying a final judgment.

“In U.S. federal court, altering a final order typically requires exceptional circumstances,” Morgan explained. “The fact that both parties agree on the modification doesn’t automatically qualify as exceptional. They had the option to settle by abandoning appeals and accepting the original judgment.”

Morgan noted that a similar motion was submitted earlier this month, only to be swiftly rejected by Judge Torres within a week. That rapid rejection underscores the court’s high bar for changing previously issued rulings. Whether the judge will view the current request as meeting that standard remains to be seen.

The Market’s Response: Hope and Hesitation

Despite the legal uncertainty, the XRP community remains hopeful. Data from crypto prediction markets such as Polymarket suggests that nearly 80% of traders are betting on a favorable outcome for Ripple. This optimism is rooted in the belief that legal clarity could unlock suppressed demand for XRP, especially if major U.S. exchanges feel comfortable relisting the token.

As of today, XRP is trading at approximately $2.19. Technical indicators show a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 47, signaling a market in equilibrium between buyers and sellers. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, while still bearish, shows signs of flattening — possibly hinting at an imminent shift in momentum.

Source: X

If Ripple emerges victorious, analysts predict an immediate rally. Price targets range from $3.50 to $4.20 in the short term, with the potential to breach $5 within a month. This surge would not only reward XRP holders but could also have broader implications for other altcoins facing regulatory scrutiny.

On the flip side, should the court deny the joint motion or issue another delay, XRP’s price could falter. A drop toward the $1.50 to $1.80 range is possible, particularly if uncertainty erodes investor confidence. In that scenario, XRP’s path to recovery could be protracted, with some analysts warning it might take years for the token to regain its footing.

The Stakes for Ripple — And the Industry

The significance of the Ripple-SEC case extends beyond XRP’s price action. At its core, the lawsuit represents a key test of how U.S. securities law applies to digital assets. A Ripple victory would provide much-needed clarity for crypto projects operating in regulatory gray zones. Conversely, a ruling in favor of the SEC could embolden the regulator to pursue similar actions against other crypto firms.

Source: TradingView

Ripple itself has framed the dispute as part of a broader struggle to modernize financial infrastructure. The company argues that blockchain technologies like XRP offer faster, cheaper, and more inclusive alternatives to legacy payment systems — but that regulatory overreach threatens to stifle innovation.

What’s Next?

The ball is now in Judge Torres’ court. If she approves the joint motion, the case could wrap up immediately, with Ripple paying the reduced fine and resuming institutional sales of XRP. This would also end appeals from both Ripple and the SEC, closing the chapter on a legal saga that has consumed significant resources and attention.

If the motion is denied, however, the case will continue — with potential appeals dragging the matter further into 2025 or beyond. Such an outcome would prolong the uncertainty hanging over XRP and the broader crypto industry.

Crypto legal experts are split on how Judge Torres might rule. While some see the joint request as a practical solution that reflects the parties’ mutual desire to move on, others argue that the court is unlikely to bend procedural rules without a stronger justification.

Investor Caution Advised

For XRP holders and potential investors, today represents a crucial inflection point. A win could spark rapid gains, but the legal uncertainty means downside risks remain significant. Experts advise investors to exercise caution and avoid making large bets based solely on speculation about the case outcome.

“It’s tempting to buy into the hype, but traders should remember that courts move at their own pace,” said Morgan. “Until we see a signed order from the judge, nothing is certain.”

The Broader Implications for Crypto Regulation

Beyond Ripple, the resolution of this case is expected to influence how U.S. regulators approach other digital assets. A clear win for Ripple could encourage lawmakers to push for comprehensive crypto legislation, reducing the likelihood of regulation through enforcement. A win for the SEC, however, might embolden the agency to intensify its crackdown on tokens it deems unregistered securities.

Either way, the Ripple-SEC case serves as a stark reminder of the importance of regulatory clarity in fostering innovation while protecting investors. The decision — whenever it comes — will be a defining moment for crypto’s future in the United States.

Conclusion

As the crypto world holds its breath, the Ripple-SEC case teeters on the edge of resolution. Whether XRP surges toward $5 or struggles to stay above $2 depends largely on the court’s next move. For now, investors, developers, and regulators alike must wait for Judge Torres to make her ruling — a decision that could shape the digital asset landscape for years to come.

Writer @Erlin

Erlin is an experienced crypto writer who loves to explore the intersection of blockchain technology and financial markets. She regularly provides insights into the latest trends and innovations in the digital currency space.

 

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