FOMC: Polymarket users predict a 98% chance that the Fed will not make any rate cut changes on June 18

Federal Reserve Unlikely to Cut Interest Rates at June 18 FOMC Meeting, Predicts Polymarket with 98% Certainty

The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain current interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting on June 18, according to predictions made by users of Polymarket, a decentralized forecasting platform. With a staggering 98% of participants betting that no rate cut will occur, market sentiment is decisively tilted toward a status quo decision amid continued economic uncertainty.

This projection from Polymarket, which leverages real-money wagers to crowdsource public opinion on major events, reflects growing skepticism that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will pivot from its current restrictive monetary policy in the near term.

As inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target and labor market resilience keeps economic activity robust, central bankers appear reluctant to ease financial conditions too soon. Despite mounting political and market pressure, analysts argue that the Fed is likely to stay the course and hold the federal funds rate at the current range of 5.25% to 5.50%.

Polymarket: A Barometer of Public Expectations

Polymarket, which operates on blockchain technology, allows users to place bets on the outcomes of real-world events—from politics to finance. These bets create a live market for public sentiment, often considered a more agile and uncensored predictor compared to traditional financial analysts.

The 98% probability displayed on the platform as of Monday represents one of the most unanimous forecasts the market has seen in months regarding U.S. monetary policy. In a climate of economic unpredictability, such high confidence underscores the widespread belief that the Fed is not yet ready to change direction.

“This level of consensus from Polymarket users suggests that market participants have digested the Fed’s recent messaging,” said economic strategist Helen Ramirez of Capital Horizon. “Chair Powell has signaled that while inflation is cooling, it’s not at a level that justifies loosening policy.”

Fed Officials Stay Cautious Despite Easing Inflation

In recent public comments, several FOMC members have reiterated the need for patience before initiating any rate cuts. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in his testimony before Congress last month, stated that inflation had shown signs of easing but remained "uncomfortably high."

Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—rose 2.7% year-over-year in April, slightly down from March but still above the 2% benchmark. Meanwhile, wage growth and consumer spending continue to show resilience, leading many policymakers to worry that premature rate reductions could reignite inflationary pressures.

“We’re on the right track,” said Powell, “but the path to our inflation target is uneven and uncertain. We must proceed with caution.”

The Market's Dilemma: Rate Cuts vs. Recession Risk

Despite the Fed's firm stance, market participants remain divided. Wall Street has spent much of 2024 speculating on the timing of rate cuts, which would typically follow signs of economic slowdown or declining inflation. Earlier in the year, futures markets had priced in at least two rate cuts for 2025, starting in the summer.

However, robust GDP growth in Q1—clocking in at an annualized rate of 2.2%—along with historically low unemployment at 3.8%, has thrown cold water on the idea of imminent monetary easing.

“There’s a tension between the data and the desire,” noted Sarah Lin, a senior analyst at KeyBridge Economics. “Investors want rate cuts because of higher borrowing costs, but the economic indicators just don’t support that outcome right now.”

Political Pressure Builds Ahead of 2024 Election Fallout

Though 2024's presidential election is now behind us, its aftermath continues to cast a shadow over the Fed's independence. While the central bank operates without direct political influence, public sentiment and political narratives inevitably affect its perceived neutrality.

Some Democratic lawmakers have called on the Fed to begin easing, citing housing affordability crises and slowing business investment. However, Republican leaders argue that any policy loosening should be firmly data-driven and not politically motivated.

The Fed, for its part, has consistently emphasized its mandate: price stability and maximum employment, irrespective of political cycles. Analysts note that a premature move could jeopardize the Fed's credibility just as inflation expectations begin to normalize.

How the Fed's Decision Impacts You

The decision to hold interest rates steady, if realized, will have far-reaching effects beyond Wall Street. For everyday Americans, it means continued higher rates on credit cards, mortgages, auto loans, and business financing. At the same time, savers may benefit from sustained high returns on savings accounts and certificates of deposit.

Small business owners, in particular, remain acutely sensitive to borrowing costs. While some sectors have adapted to elevated rates, others—especially those in real estate, manufacturing, and hospitality—continue to face margin pressures.

“Keeping rates high for longer might be prudent macroeconomically, but it does prolong pain for small businesses,” said Jason Moore, a policy analyst at the Chamber of Commerce. “They need clarity more than anything else.”

Global Ripple Effects of Fed Policy

The Federal Reserve's decisions resonate far beyond U.S. borders. As the world’s largest economy, any changes—or lack thereof—in Fed policy ripple across international financial markets, influencing everything from currency valuations to capital flows.

Emerging markets, for instance, often face capital outflows when U.S. interest rates rise, as investors seek higher yields in dollar-denominated assets. A continued pause in rate hikes may provide some relief to developing economies struggling with their own inflationary and currency pressures.

Meanwhile, other major central banks, such as the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, are closely watching the Fed’s moves as they contemplate their own policy shifts.

Looking Ahead: July and September Meetings in Focus

With a rate cut now highly unlikely in June, market attention will pivot toward the Fed's July and September meetings. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a cut by September has dropped to below 40%, as economic data continues to surprise on the upside.

Some analysts believe that unless there is a significant drop in employment figures or a sudden decline in inflation, the Fed could extend its pause well into the final quarter of the year.

“The Fed is playing the long game,” said economist Michael Donahue of Ridgeview Financial. “They’d rather risk being too tight for too long than loosening too early and losing the progress they’ve made.”

Final Word: All Eyes on June 18

With just days to go before the June 18 meeting, the FOMC appears firmly committed to a wait-and-see approach. While economic growth has softened marginally, inflation remains persistent enough to delay any definitive policy shift. The overwhelming 98% prediction on Polymarket reflects a market consensus that the Fed will prioritize stability over stimulus—for now.

🇺🇸 FOMC: Polymarket users predict a 98% chance that the Fed will not make any rate cut changes on June 18. pic.twitter.com/DGk4nl6VWm

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) June 9, 2025

As the calendar advances and data continues to roll in, the question isn’t just when the Fed will cut rates—but under what circumstances it will feel confident enough to do so.

Until then, consumers, investors, and policymakers alike will be watching—and waiting.

Writer @Erlin

Erlin is an experienced crypto writer who loves to explore the intersection of blockchain technology and financial markets. She regularly provides insights into the latest trends and innovations in the digital currency space.

 

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