Why Solana Is Falling: Will SOL Price Drop To $150 or Recover?

Solana Faces Crucial Test as $SOL Falls Below $172 Amid Whale Activity and Technical Tensions

Solana, one of the most prominent blockchain networks in the cryptocurrency space, has entered a period of high volatility as its native token, $SOL, dipped below the critical $172 mark. This decline comes despite rising on-chain activity and a wave of new wallets signaling increased adoption. However, conflicting technical indicators and large-scale short positions taken by crypto whales have cast uncertainty over Solana’s near-term price trajectory.

At the time of reporting, Solana is trading at $171.69, marking a 1.62% drop in the past 24 hours. While this dip appears minor on the surface, deeper analysis reveals that the token may be approaching a make-or-break moment—one that could lead to either a sharp rebound or a more substantial correction.

Volatile Trading Day Signals Investor Caution

Solana’s price has witnessed sharp swings within the past 24 hours, touching a high of $179.11 before slipping to a low of $166.00. The increased volatility has coincided with a notable rise in trading volume, which surged over 30% to $5.79 billion, indicating that while the token is under pressure, market interest remains active and robust.

Despite the downturn, Solana continues to maintain a market capitalization of $89.18 billion, with its fully diluted valuation (FDV) sitting at $103.12 billion. This reflects strong long-term belief in the platform’s utility, though short-term sentiment remains mixed.

Rising Wallet Numbers Highlight Adoption Growth

According to blockchain analytics firm Glassnode, the number of wallets holding at least 0.1 SOL has reached a new all-time high of 11.04 million. This surge in wallet addresses suggests that user adoption is climbing steadily, potentially fueled by the platform’s growing presence in decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and staking protocols.

Crypto analyst Ali Charts, known for tracking on-chain metrics, shared the data on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), describing the uptick in unique wallets as a “bullish foundational signal.” A broader user base typically enhances network security, promotes liquidity, and improves token utility over time.

Source: Ali Charts

However, analysts caution that rising user adoption does not always translate into immediate price growth—especially when macro pressures and market sentiment are trending bearish.

Whale Short Positions Add Bearish Pressure

Despite positive indicators around adoption, major players in the market appear to be betting against Solana—at least in the short term. According to blockchain surveillance platform Lookonchain, a well-capitalized crypto whale recently deposited $50.5 million in USDC into decentralized perpetual exchange Hyperliquid and initiated heavily leveraged short positions on Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL).

Utilizing 5x leverage, the investor is reported to be sitting on an unrealized profit of $3.5 million. These short bets are seen by some analysts as a significant contributor to recent downward pressure on $SOL, with bearish sentiment possibly spreading through the market as a result.

Source: X

“If this whale decides to close their positions, a short squeeze could send prices sharply higher,” said James Okoro, senior analyst at Digital Asset Research. “But until that happens, they’re casting a long shadow over any potential upward movement.”

Technical Indicators Offer Mixed Signals

From a technical analysis standpoint, Solana’s recent price movement appears conflicted. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator on TradingView has turned bullish, with the blue MACD line crossing above the orange signal line—a classical sign of growing positive momentum.

Still, the trading volume behind this movement remains moderate, currently at 320,000 SOL. For bullish momentum to take hold, technical analysts agree that volume must increase significantly to validate the MACD crossover.

Key price levels now act as psychological triggers for traders and investors alike:

• Support: $165 — A breakdown below this level may open the path toward a more severe correction, potentially testing the $150 or even $140 region.

• Resistance: $180 — A clean breakout above this level could push $SOL back into bullish territory, with targets near $200 becoming realistic.

“The $165 to $180 range is the key battleground right now,” said crypto trader Ava Leclerc. “Whichever side breaks first will likely dictate the market’s direction in the next two weeks.”

Institutional and Retail Sentiment Diverge

Interestingly, while retail interest appears to be surging—as evidenced by rising wallet numbers and social media chatter—some institutional investors remain cautious. Market observers suggest that macroeconomic uncertainty, coupled with lingering regulatory concerns in the U.S. and Europe, may be keeping larger players on the sidelines.

That said, the Solana Foundation continues to make strides in ecosystem development. Recent announcements of new partnerships with DeFi projects, Layer-2 integrations, and NFT platforms underscore the network’s growing utility. These developments could provide a foundation for longer-term price appreciation once market volatility stabilizes.

Will Solana Bounce or Continue Falling?

Predicting Solana’s next move is no easy task, given the interplay of bullish fundamentals and bearish technical headwinds. However, analysts agree on several likely scenarios:

• If buying volume increases and the MACD remains bullish, Solana could rebound toward the $180–$200 range in the short term.

• If $165 fails as support, and this break is accompanied by high selling volume, a deeper correction toward $140–$130 becomes increasingly likely.

• A short squeeze, if triggered by whales closing leveraged positions, could result in rapid upward price action that catches short-sellers off guard.

For now, Solana remains in a precarious but potentially explosive position. Traders and long-term holders alike are advised to monitor key price levels and whale movements closely.

Conclusion

Solana’s current market position is a high-stakes standoff between bullish fundamentals and bearish forces. The rise in wallet addresses and a bullish MACD crossover indicate underlying strength in the project’s growth and adoption. At the same time, substantial short positions by large investors and uncertain technical signals are keeping the token pinned below key resistance levels.

As the crypto market awaits Solana’s next big move, all eyes remain on the critical $165–$180 range. A break on either side could signal the direction not only for Solana but for the broader altcoin sector as well.

Whether this period ends in rebound or retreat, one thing is clear: Solana is at a pivotal point that could shape its trajectory for the months to come.

Writer @Erlin

Erlin is an experienced crypto writer who loves to explore the intersection of blockchain technology and financial markets. She regularly provides insights into the latest trends and innovations in the digital currency space.

 

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